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Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:21 am

Serene,  

Are the faults mentioned really yours ? Don't feel bad. Read on


1) In the post "When to Sell", I tried to cover in detail  the issue of Selling . Is there really a right time? Take a read as I cover lot of depth in there on "what is selling at the right time?"
Not sure you were active then so do read?



http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8157-when-to-sell?highlight=when+to+sell




2)  Issue of not Selling Sampath for example at Rs 300 will be Trade call more than an Investor call.  At Rs 300 what was the fundamental value of Sampath compared to the sector?  ( Btw  Sampath was at Rs 345 too sometime ago.)  


3) "Buying shares at a appealing price but still at a bearish tech calls."

If you are following Tech calls, in your experience do Tech calls work very well in these bearish markets?  Ask me for proof if you need and I will send you a PM.  I saw Tech call  by someone on the same share 3 times at various prices . But every time  after it hit the initial  call , the market price kept going lower. So that person made  new lower buy call.  Where does these calls  end?


4) When I made the below post/warning on JKH , I actually made the calls at  Rs 138 , 135 , 130 on Tech and historical basis.
 
http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1223p800-share-discussions#89673

If one actually kept track of JKH,  there was some support  at various stages as above.
Now around the Rs 130 specially as mentioned in  the post you can see a support.

But  if some big guy wants to sell at Rs 100 suddenly ( am not saying it will go there but for example) , all calls will be redundant as no one can predict the mind of a future seller or event.  


5)  Investor goals/valuation/patience is different to that of a Trader.
      Anycase  don't think there is  an always accurate formula for anyone.
     If there is such, that person will be richest at CSE ( the world even)



6)  Anyway anyone who read the post "When to Sell" , will know the issues around selling  at "right time".  Take a read


serene wrote:True SLS what YK is telling is very true.
I see two main reasons for  this. At least to me until such day I get rid of those two reasons YKs point is 100% valid.
1. Too much emotions and confidence on a share without paying required attention to CSE as a whole. Which leads not to book profits by striping at a right price
EX: SAMP at 300..
2.Buying shares at a appealing price but still at a bearish tech calls. Buying SAMP at 260.is it ok if you buying small quantities though.
If you are guilty at above two scenario Samp at 235 May not attractive to you.
I arbitrary rake SAMP as a example. Who knows it might come to 200 with another foriegn sell off.
There are other reasons as well but to me above two are my highest faults.


Last edited by slstock on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:27 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:19 am

Thanks guys for the very genuine discussion on our own faults on when to buy/sell. I too is a victim of this fault myself. This type of self criticism helps all of us to perform better in the future.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:19 am

My view is all are these situational. Buy JKH sell JKH or Buy SAMP or Sell SAMP at various prices is situational. A strong buy at one point can become a strong sell in another point.

I remember I thought buying SAMP @ 300 would be less risky few months ago because at that point the price seems the bottom but now I am believing 220 will be a safe entry point considering the rate of drains happening and allowing for some margin.

Suppose somehow I bought SAMP @ 220 and then after that if there is another change in context such as extended foreign selling or USD hitting 200 then we will see record lows for CSE and so SAMP. At that point the same myself will call myself a stupid to buy at 220 instead I could wait a bit till it moves to 200, assume.

So all these are situational and the best thing to do is to take actions according to situation and also matching with your risk profile. For example if I am to buy JKH @ 130 or SAMP @ 230 then I must keep in mind that there is always a possibility that JKH might come down to even 120 and SAMP to 200 so I have at least some back up plans.

May be preparing to average down in advance.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Ethical Trader on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:22 am

Thanks Invisible.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:26 am

Welcome ET.

As SLS stated if we know precisely what is happening and what is going to happen then we are the richest in CSE as well as in the world.

Unfortunately God is not that much stupid to give us everything we wanted. So be happy with what you have got and make plans for what you have missed.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:17 pm

Seyon wrote:
slstock wrote:
SAMP or NDB. Out of these two,  one share is more attractive to me than the other.
And it may not be  the obvious favorite of many Wink
 

SLS,

Pls advice me on NDB, i wanted to enter into NDB for long term from right issue by applying additional shares, did not subscribe as it is trading below rights. What is your advice on entering current price. will it come down?        



Well if you want to go for long term, NDB current price is very attractive.
It is coming down to 2012 price levels !

As you said, it is trading below right price too .
But all rights were subscribed + a little more. So no worry there.
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/8991539172276_.pdf

In a market like this, what I can suggest is this.

a) If you truly are looking at Investing , and can hold without worrying about short term price drops if they happen , then  present price is very attractive.

b) But if you feel upset if you buy now at Rs 104 and price drops a bit more, then I suggest  to buy in steps .
Not buy everything now , but watch the direction and buy in steps to collect you quantity.

Risk is, once the selling is over, as this is fundamental dividend paying share, this can start running without notice. Sri Lankan are famous from herd mentality.

They sell at losses in herds when prices drops, and buy like crazy when something has started to run or already run. You might have to be one in the middle Wink

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:27 pm

JKH is another Enron to me but not SAMP.
If SAMP drops to 160 level, then I would be one of the happiest. bounce
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Seyon on Thu Oct 11, 2018 5:23 pm

slstock wrote:
Seyon wrote:
slstock wrote:
SAMP or NDB. Out of these two,  one share is more attractive to me than the other.
And it may not be  the obvious favorite of many Wink
 

SLS,

Pls advice me on NDB, i wanted to enter into NDB for long term from right issue by applying additional shares, did not subscribe as it is trading below rights. What is your advice on entering current price. will it come down?        



Well if you want to go for long term, NDB current price is very attractive.
It is coming down to 2012 price levels !

As you said,  it is  trading below right price too .
But all rights were subscribed + a little more. So no worry there.
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/8991539172276_.pdf

In a market like this, what I can suggest is this.

a) If you truly are looking at Investing , and can hold without worrying about short term price drops if they happen , then  present price is very attractive.

b) But if you feel upset if you buy now at Rs 104 and price drops a bit more, then I suggest  to buy in steps .
Not buy everything now , but watch the direction and buy in steps to collect you quantity.

Risk is, once the selling is over, as this is fundamental dividend paying share, this can start running without notice. Sri Lankan are famous from herd mentality.

They sell at losses in herds when prices drops,  and buy like crazy when something has started to run or already run. You might have to be one in the middle Wink

Thanks SLS for your time to advice.

Now i changed my habits. no trading.. only investing for long-term specially on shares giving dividend annually.

After long time i re entered in to CSE and the forum and started on research on selected bank shares.

Thanks again

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:09 pm

Thanks SLS.Yes it is tough call to buy at a determined support level at a prolonged bearish period like this.
Only two things can be done.
If you are happy with fundamental value you can buy portions without buying wholehearted.Then you can buy lower levels if support breaks.
Other option is follow what Invinsible said. Buy with very clear stop loss.
But to do all those you have to suppress emotional aspect which is my biggesst weakness.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:15 pm

serene wrote:Thanks SLS.Yes it is tough call to buy at a determined support level at a prolonged bearish period like this.
Only two things can be done.
If you are happy with fundamental value you can buy portions without buying wholehearted.Then you can buy lower levels if support breaks.
Other option is follow what Invinsible said. Buy with very clear stop loss.
But to do all those you have to suppress emotional aspect which is my biggesst weakness.

I believe the Important part is understand whether we are Investing with a particular share or Trading with it. Heartaches and  emotions are dependent on our goals, expectation and needs/wants. ( just like in buddhism)


Do read that "When to Sell" post .  In the least case , you will feel you are not alone, and there is no exact right time to sell a fundamental.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:24 pm

Thanks SLs.
The irony is we have to convert investing shares to trading shares as we invest in CSE under government who has nothing to say or do something to prevent deep plunge.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:54 pm

Hehehe

Bloody hell the forum got very active again today even in a Red market Smile Smile
Did you"ll notice Smile

Well done chappies.


slstock wrote:To All:

Does anyone realize  the truth and depth of YK  comment ( last few  paragraphs).
I am the only one who gave him a like !

Explains  a lot why CSE and forum is like this. And we blame others.


YK :

What is this ?
The people at this forum are incorrigible ( you too haha).

When forum is starting to get active little by little  ( market ran for 4 days too), you disappear

So much effort is needed to make the forum  active from Zombie state.
Sometimes have to individually convince people behind the scene to write here.

But when one appears and other disappear.

How can the forum sustain ( same logic why CSE is like this )

Time you start writing again YK.


To ALL :

Above  goes out to all of you who has the capacity to participate or even contribute more  for a public cause ( I mean not promote/demote for personal reasons but to give educational inputs and material ) that will benefit you too in the longer term but you choose keep quiet and just watch.  


( you"ll have no idea what I too am sacrificing to put time to write here. Some may call me stupid if they knew )





yellow knife wrote:Its a good sign to see much participation taking place with this thread.

Now I don't think that anyone has valid reasons to not to agree with the points SLS clarifies on Foreign Sales. Its not the Fed Rate hike but the LKR devaluation that promotes exodus of foreigners from CSE.

Wether its foreigners or locals we often driven by Herd Mentality. We just do what others do. When someone else is selling I am also selling. When someone else is buying I am also buying.

Now the problem is Why Not You Buy when fundamentally there are many gems. When its hard to identify Gems, everyone is analyisng to find hidden Gems. Now Gems are obvious. But no one is buying.

Why?

Because EPF is not buying, because foreigners are selling, because HNVIs are not active and we have enough reasons.

these are the best times to buy.

People value shares from two perspective.

1. Based on Fundamentals. (Ref. CDB ratios as explained by SLS above)

2. Based on " What I think the value others are valuing".

Since the second type of people are more , it gives ample of opportunities for type 1 of above.

Thanks SLS for this timely post.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by xmart on Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:29 pm

Serene wrote:Now i changed my habits. no trading.. only investing for long-term specially on shares giving dividend annually.

well, that is one of learning stage, my friend. in a market like CSE, pure traders will lose sleep and after few successful trades they will lose because of pride and ego. after few successful trades, they tend to think that I'm invincible and I have found the holy grail of trading.

all of sudden, Mr. market behave completely strange manner while all the technical indicators give you one directional signal. because all can see common signals of a strong trend, people who have positioned themselves when the coast is clear started loading off on excited retailers.

so what happens next is, after the trader's ego issue and pride, he tends to think that the market is all wrong, and my signal can't be wrong. so stubbornly stick to losing trade and even scale down (average when going down) the position and get a temporary satisfaction that his average cost is much lower.

when market refuses to turn, you end up with 15%, 25% of loss and with your ego, you have bought from margin by thinking every consolidation is a bottom. bingo, now you have a technically underperforming share more than you plan to allocate for a trade and when margin interest and calls come bugging you, you will sell well-performed shares with a small profit or small loss to minimize overall loss.

now your large portion of the portfolio is a major underperformer and since selling with 30-40% would make your this year investment return negative and ego prevails, you develop total blindness to unfavorite factors and respond and think only with details favoring your share.

now all of sudden, such people declare them as long-term investors just like people declare them vegetarians. this is a temporary delusion our brain cast between our subconscious and conscious minds. human nature is making stories when uncertainty arose.

such long-term investors, will see their stakes at the breakeven point and think that their long-term investment proved that since they did not lose money (they ignore opportunity cost). if share shoots another 10% then they become uncomfortable and start buying at the top like crazy. boom! they are again in the vicious cycle of losing money.

therefore, the best thing to do in a market like CSE(a most illiquid market I have seen)

1. grabs opportunities at lower cost in strong counters when market presents you such opportunity.
2. learn the art of selling
3. trade at predefined risk/reward ratio

Normally what I do is (this may not be the most appropriate method),
1. I take positions in 5-10 parcels (you cannot buy a single lot in this market without making a considerable spike)
2. refer weekly chart and pick stocks seemingly bottoming out or making bullish consolidation
3. only select promising counters with management turnaround, or good counters passing bad times.
4. nevertheless, no one tells you do not have small fun with craps if this and that falls into the right place.

one of admirable person I met in cyberspace once said, I'm slowly collecting TAP around 1-2 Rs when everyone said its a crap with my dividend incomes and profit from small trades. this may be my pension fund or nothing. I will sell this once 6 Rs or hold sometimes.

likewise, every share has a value. there is no worthy long-term investment in cyclic markets. look at LLUB, SPEN, DIST, JKH, CARS etc. wheel rotates and we should be in and out in defined prices or durations.

good luck my friend. this is not all relavent to a seasonal trader/ investor like you, but your phrase make me write this

cheer
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:49 pm

xmart wrote:
Serene wrote:Now i changed my habits. no trading.. only investing for long-term specially on shares giving dividend annually.

well, that is one of learning stage, my friend. in a market like CSE, pure traders will lose sleep and after few successful trades they will lose because of pride and ego. after few successful trades, they tend to think that I'm invincible and I have found the holy grail of trading.

all of sudden, Mr. market behave completely strange manner while all the technical indicators give you one directional signal. because all can see common signals of a strong trend, people who have positioned themselves when the coast is clear started loading off on excited retailers.

so what happens next is, after the trader's ego issue and pride, he tends to think that the market is all wrong, and my signal can't be wrong. so stubbornly stick to losing trade and even scale down (average when going down) the position and get a temporary satisfaction that his average cost is much lower.

when market refuses to turn, you end up with 15%, 25% of loss and with your ego, you have bought from margin by thinking every consolidation is a bottom. bingo, now you have a technically underperforming share more than you plan to allocate for a trade and when margin interest and calls come bugging you, you will sell well-performed shares with a small profit or small loss to minimize overall loss.

now your large portion of the portfolio is a major underperformer and since selling with 30-40% would make your this year investment return negative and ego prevails, you develop total blindness to unfavorite factors and respond and think only with details favoring your share.

now all of sudden, such people declare them as long-term investors just like people declare them vegetarians. this is a temporary delusion our brain cast between our subconscious and conscious minds. human nature is making stories when uncertainty arose.

such long-term investors, will see their stakes at the breakeven point and think that their long-term investment proved that since they did not lose money (they ignore opportunity cost). if share shoots another 10% then they become uncomfortable and start buying at the top like crazy. boom! they are again in the vicious cycle of losing money.

therefore, the best thing to do in a market like CSE(a most illiquid market I have seen)

1.  grabs opportunities at lower cost in strong counters when market presents you such opportunity.
2.  learn the art of selling
3.  trade at predefined risk/reward ratio

Normally what I do is (this may not be the most appropriate method),
1.  I take positions in 5-10 parcels (you cannot buy a single lot in this market without making a considerable spike)
2.  refer weekly chart and pick stocks seemingly bottoming out or making bullish consolidation
3. only select promising counters with management turnaround, or good counters passing bad times.
4. nevertheless, no one tells you do not have small fun with craps if this and that falls into the right place.

one of admirable person I met in cyberspace once said, I'm slowly collecting TAP around 1-2 Rs when everyone said its a crap with my dividend incomes and profit from small trades. this may be my pension fund or nothing. I will sell this once 6 Rs or hold sometimes.

likewise, every share has a value. there is no worthy long-term investment in cyclic markets. look at LLUB, SPEN, DIST, JKH, CARS etc. wheel rotates and we should be in and out in defined prices or durations.

good luck my friend. this is not all relavent to a seasonal trader/ investor like you, but your phrase make me write this

cheer
Thanks Mate.
Never ending learning. Thats true We have to get rid of the EGO For once and for all to be success in Share Market.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by serene on Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:53 pm

slstock wrote:Hehehe

Bloody hell the forum got very active again today even in a Red market  Smile Smile
Did you"ll notice Smile

Well done chappies.


slstock wrote:To All:

Does anyone realize  the truth and depth of YK  comment ( last few  paragraphs).
I am the only one who gave him a like !

Explains  a lot why CSE and forum is like this. And we blame others.


YK :

What is this ?
The people at this forum are incorrigible ( you too haha).

When forum is starting to get active little by little  ( market ran for 4 days too), you disappear

So much effort is needed to make the forum  active from Zombie state.
Sometimes have to individually convince people behind the scene to write here.

But when one appears and other disappear.

How can the forum sustain ( same logic why CSE is like this )

Time you start writing again YK.


To ALL :

Above  goes out to all of you who has the capacity to participate or even contribute more  for a public cause ( I mean not promote/demote for personal reasons but to give educational inputs and material ) that will benefit you too in the longer term but you choose keep quiet and just watch.  


( you"ll have no idea what I too am sacrificing to put time to write here. Some may call me stupid if they knew )





yellow knife wrote:Its a good sign to see much participation taking place with this thread.

Now I don't think that anyone has valid reasons to not to agree with the points SLS clarifies on Foreign Sales. Its not the Fed Rate hike but the LKR devaluation that promotes exodus of foreigners from CSE.

Wether its foreigners or locals we often driven by Herd Mentality. We just do what others do. When someone else is selling I am also selling. When someone else is buying I am also buying.

Now the problem is Why Not You Buy when fundamentally there are many gems. When its hard to identify Gems, everyone is analyisng to find hidden Gems. Now Gems are obvious. But no one is buying.

Why?

Because EPF is not buying, because foreigners are selling, because HNVIs are not active and we have enough reasons.

these are the best times to buy.

People value shares from two perspective.

1. Based on Fundamentals. (Ref. CDB ratios as explained by SLS above)

2. Based on " What I think the value others are valuing".

Since the second type of people are more , it gives ample of opportunities for type 1 of above.

Thanks SLS for this timely post.
Well Done SLS. Laughing

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:35 pm

slstock wrote:
Seyon wrote:
slstock wrote:
SAMP or NDB. Out of these two,  one share is more attractive to me than the other.
And it may not be  the obvious favorite of many Wink
 

SLS,

Pls advice me on NDB, i wanted to enter into NDB for long term from right issue by applying additional shares, did not subscribe as it is trading below rights. What is your advice on entering current price. will it come down?        



Well if you want to go for long term, NDB current price is very attractive.
It is coming down to 2012 price levels !

As you said,  it is  trading below right price too .
But all rights were subscribed + a little more. So no worry there.
https://cdn.cse.lk/cmt/upload_cse_announcements/8991539172276_.pdf

In a market like this, what I can suggest is this.

a) If you truly are looking at Investing , and can hold without worrying about short term price drops if they happen , then  present price is very attractive.

b) But if you feel upset if you buy now at Rs 104 and price drops a bit more, then I suggest  to buy in steps .
Not buy everything now , but watch the direction and buy in steps to collect you quantity.

Risk is, once the selling is over, as this is fundamental dividend paying share, this can start running without notice. Sri Lankan are famous from herd mentality.

They sell at losses in herds when prices drops,  and buy like crazy when something has started to run or already run. You might have to be one in the middle Wink

I am recommending (b) under current context
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:38 pm

serene wrote:Thanks SLS.Yes it is tough call to buy at a determined support level at a prolonged bearish period like this.
Only two things can be done.
If you are happy with fundamental value you can buy portions without buying wholehearted.Then you can buy lower levels if support breaks.
Other option is follow what Invinsible said. Buy with very clear stop loss.
But to do all those you have to suppress emotional aspect which is my biggesst weakness.

That's correct. You have to have a contextually adjusted mindset my friend.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Thu Oct 11, 2018 9:46 pm

These are the best time to buy but not so good for sell. if you look at the market PE about 4 years ago it was around 20x and now less than 10x. meaning the stocks became 50% cheaper than before.

Its like 50% off guys....
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by nihal123 on Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:18 pm

[quote="slstock"]Hehehe

Bloody hell the forum got very active again today even in a Red market  Smile Smile
Did you"ll notice Smile

Well done chappies.


Do you know what's reason, slstock ?

Mr. slstock activated the forum.

Razz

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by The Invisible on Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:44 am

Everyone has the chance to activate/deactivate but the question is who takes the lead.
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by yellow knife on Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:12 am

nihal123 wrote:
slstock wrote:Hehehe

Bloody hell the forum got very active again today even in a Red market  Smile Smile
Did you"ll notice Smile

Well done chappies.


Do you know what's reason, slstock ?

Mr. slstock activated the forum.

Razz  



Just mentioned the same in another thread. Thanks SLS....forum is active.( But not the market. )

Anyway this is the best time to understand ourselves. Lets use this time to discuss shares and styles of picking shares.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by CK on Fri Oct 12, 2018 7:47 am

xmart this is one of the best comments I read. Thanks brother.


xmart wrote:
Serene wrote:Now i changed my habits. no trading.. only investing for long-term specially on shares giving dividend annually.

well, that is one of learning stage, my friend. in a market like CSE, pure traders will lose sleep and after few successful trades they will lose because of pride and ego. after few successful trades, they tend to think that I'm invincible and I have found the holy grail of trading.

all of sudden, Mr. market behave completely strange manner while all the technical indicators give you one directional signal. because all can see common signals of a strong trend, people who have positioned themselves when the coast is clear started loading off on excited retailers.

so what happens next is, after the trader's ego issue and pride, he tends to think that the market is all wrong, and my signal can't be wrong. so stubbornly stick to losing trade and even scale down (average when going down) the position and get a temporary satisfaction that his average cost is much lower.

when market refuses to turn, you end up with 15%, 25% of loss and with your ego, you have bought from margin by thinking every consolidation is a bottom. bingo, now you have a technically underperforming share more than you plan to allocate for a trade and when margin interest and calls come bugging you, you will sell well-performed shares with a small profit or small loss to minimize overall loss.

now your large portion of the portfolio is a major underperformer and since selling with 30-40% would make your this year investment return negative and ego prevails, you develop total blindness to unfavorite factors and respond and think only with details favoring your share.

now all of sudden, such people declare them as long-term investors just like people declare them vegetarians. this is a temporary delusion our brain cast between our subconscious and conscious minds. human nature is making stories when uncertainty arose.

such long-term investors, will see their stakes at the breakeven point and think that their long-term investment proved that since they did not lose money (they ignore opportunity cost). if share shoots another 10% then they become uncomfortable and start buying at the top like crazy. boom! they are again in the vicious cycle of losing money.

therefore, the best thing to do in a market like CSE(a most illiquid market I have seen)

1.  grabs opportunities at lower cost in strong counters when market presents you such opportunity.
2.  learn the art of selling
3.  trade at predefined risk/reward ratio

Normally what I do is (this may not be the most appropriate method),
1.  I take positions in 5-10 parcels (you cannot buy a single lot in this market without making a considerable spike)
2.  refer weekly chart and pick stocks seemingly bottoming out or making bullish consolidation
3. only select promising counters with management turnaround, or good counters passing bad times.
4. nevertheless, no one tells you do not have small fun with craps if this and that falls into the right place.

one of admirable person I met in cyberspace once said, I'm slowly collecting TAP around 1-2 Rs when everyone said its a crap with my dividend incomes and profit from small trades. this may be my pension fund or nothing. I will sell this once 6 Rs or hold sometimes.

likewise, every share has a value. there is no worthy long-term investment in cyclic markets. look at LLUB, SPEN, DIST, JKH, CARS etc. wheel rotates and we should be in and out in defined prices or durations.

good luck my friend. this is not all relavent to a seasonal trader/ investor like you, but your phrase make me write this

cheer
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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by Seyon on Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:43 am

xmart wrote:
Serene wrote:Now i changed my habits. no trading.. only investing for long-term specially on shares giving dividend annually.

well, that is one of learning stage, my friend. in a market like CSE, pure traders will lose sleep and after few successful trades they will lose because of pride and ego. after few successful trades, they tend to think that I'm invincible and I have found the holy grail of trading.

all of sudden, Mr. market behave completely strange manner while all the technical indicators give you one directional signal. because all can see common signals of a strong trend, people who have positioned themselves when the coast is clear started loading off on excited retailers.

so what happens next is, after the trader's ego issue and pride, he tends to think that the market is all wrong, and my signal can't be wrong. so stubbornly stick to losing trade and even scale down (average when going down) the position and get a temporary satisfaction that his average cost is much lower.

when market refuses to turn, you end up with 15%, 25% of loss and with your ego, you have bought from margin by thinking every consolidation is a bottom. bingo, now you have a technically underperforming share more than you plan to allocate for a trade and when margin interest and calls come bugging you, you will sell well-performed shares with a small profit or small loss to minimize overall loss.

now your large portion of the portfolio is a major underperformer and since selling with 30-40% would make your this year investment return negative and ego prevails, you develop total blindness to unfavorite factors and respond and think only with details favoring your share.

now all of sudden, such people declare them as long-term investors just like people declare them vegetarians. this is a temporary delusion our brain cast between our subconscious and conscious minds. human nature is making stories when uncertainty arose.

such long-term investors, will see their stakes at the breakeven point and think that their long-term investment proved that since they did not lose money (they ignore opportunity cost). if share shoots another 10% then they become uncomfortable and start buying at the top like crazy. boom! they are again in the vicious cycle of losing money.

therefore, the best thing to do in a market like CSE(a most illiquid market I have seen)

1.  grabs opportunities at lower cost in strong counters when market presents you such opportunity.
2.  learn the art of selling
3.  trade at predefined risk/reward ratio

Normally what I do is (this may not be the most appropriate method),
1.  I take positions in 5-10 parcels (you cannot buy a single lot in this market without making a considerable spike)
2.  refer weekly chart and pick stocks seemingly bottoming out or making bullish consolidation
3. only select promising counters with management turnaround, or good counters passing bad times.
4. nevertheless, no one tells you do not have small fun with craps if this and that falls into the right place.

one of admirable person I met in cyberspace once said, I'm slowly collecting TAP around 1-2 Rs when everyone said its a crap with my dividend incomes and profit from small trades. this may be my pension fund or nothing. I will sell this once 6 Rs or hold sometimes.

likewise, every share has a value. there is no worthy long-term investment in cyclic markets. look at LLUB, SPEN, DIST, JKH, CARS etc. wheel rotates and we should be in and out in defined prices or durations.

good luck my friend. this is not all relavent to a seasonal trader/ investor like you, but your phrase make me write this

cheer

Thanks Xmart You pointed valuable comments when to enter and exit for valued shares too. I have some shares holding more than 10 years, still giving reasonable annual return above FD rates. I never sell those shares .

In past years i traded also, but i couldn't get good return comparing with the return on valued shares then i thought trading style may not be suit for me, i stopped trading for last three years and away form the market.

I am feeling it is good time for investment, for me some counters are attractive for collection to build my portfolio.

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:26 am

yellow knife wrote:

....forum is active.( But not the market. )



1) Lets go one step at a time friend. More people are active means more the market can get active too.

2) Well whether the market is active or not depends on how we view it.

ex 1 : If some shares in your portfolio is holding ground when other are loosing 20-30% that could be an active achievement in a way

ex 2 : Even in a market like this, if you can find occasional trading ops with your medium term shares ( even if at a loss trading somewhat helps to average atleast)


ex 3: you can find more and more "gems" to match prices of 2012, might be a joy for some collectors



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Please read : http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
---------

If someone finds an Avatar of me in cyberspace commenting and you are unsure, Keep asking deeper questions until you are satisfied to distinguish between the Real and the Avatar. The real answers questions directly and deeply Wink

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Re: Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Post by slstock on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:32 am

X,

Yes, short term/medium term trades can become long term holdings if we don't monitor the share movement  daily or control our emotions.

Specially penny shares losing 10 cents even can mean 10% loss .  Ex : If you buy Y share today at Rs 1 for a day trade and missed to sell same day and then couldn't check market for 3 days, maybe now it could be down 30 cents. ( 30% loss).  Then day trades can become long term holdings.

It has happened to me too.


Last edited by slstock on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:39 am; edited 1 time in total

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Please read : http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t1548-important-warning-and-message
---------

If someone finds an Avatar of me in cyberspace commenting and you are unsure, Keep asking deeper questions until you are satisfied to distinguish between the Real and the Avatar. The real answers questions directly and deeply Wink

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