CAL Research - JKH - Sell

Thanks RB for sharing, +

Is this for Blackrock to collect?

I agree currently it's on premium. But they seem to be slowly getting out of trouble. As at now, with the current ASI level, I think it can go to a max of Rs 270-280. This includes a liquidity premium.

Thanks Reds. SELL karanna kiyala kiyanne..

I salute CAL for being bold enough to call a sell at this bull stage ( rarely people will do that).

But unless there is massive catastrophe ( like news that casino is cancelled in addition to part of their project plans ) or a market crash I don't think JKH will fall to Rs 192 again in near future.

We also see constant collection on JKH by foreign party. So if the bull remain ( seems it would) the chances of JKH going up is higher than falling to 192 in near future.

I am saying this with logic I can see, but CAL may know something I don't . They are a company with lot "heads" and extrenal info. I am me ( 1 person) with no such info.

On fundamental JKH looks overvalued but JKH is JKH.

ෆෝරිනර්ස්ලට පිස්සුද කොහෙද 192ක් වටිනා එක 257ට ගන්න
නැත්තන් කැප්ටන්ට පිස්සුද කොහෙද janus ලාගෙන් 250ට ගන්න
නැත්තන් අපිට පිස්සුද මේ කියන එක(192කේ කතාව )විස්වාස කරන්න
දැන් කාටද පිස්සු?

marusira wrote:ෆෝරිනර්ස්ලට පිස්සුද කොහෙද 192ක් වටිනා එක 257ට ගන්න
නැත්තන් කැප්ටන්ට පිස්සුද කොහෙද janus ලාගෙන් 250ට ගන්න  
නැත්තන් අපිට පිස්සුද මේ කියන එක(192කේ කතාව )විස්වාස කරන්න  
දැන් කාටද පිස්සු?

Maru kathawa Marusiya , +

CAL's reports are good and accurate.

But not with JKH and LLUB. For both they had sell recommendations for a considerable time now. But both went against them.

Few points/questions

* Recurrent P/E calculation is wrong in the 1st page. It is correct in pg 5 Appendix 3
* Are these WACC numbers justifiable?, just asking.
* Why is recurrent EPS dropping in FY15E ? just because of interest income?
* Interest bearing debt seems lower than reported.
* Why is Equity dropping in FY15E ? Rs. 4 bil drop from 1H15 forecasted

slstock wrote:I salute CAL for being bold enough to call a sell at this bull stage ( rarely people will do that).

But unless there is massive catastrophe ( like news that casino is cancelled in addition to part of their project plans )  or a market crash  I don't think JKH will  fall to Rs 192 again in near future.
 
We also see constant collection on JKH by foreign party.  So if the bull remain ( seems it would) the chances of JKH going up is higher than  falling to 192 in near future.

I am saying this with logic  I can see, but CAL may know something I don't . They are a company with lot "heads"  and extrenal info.   I am me ( 1 person) with no such info.

On fundamental JKH looks overvalued but JKH is JKH.

May be this "sell" recommendation is due to uncertainity created by election feaver + warrant conversion date nearing?

Ethical Trader wrote:

slstock wrote:I salute CAL for being bold enough to call a sell at this bull stage ( rarely people will do that).

But unless there is massive catastrophe ( like news that casino is cancelled in addition to part of their project plans )  or a market crash  I don't think JKH will  fall to Rs 192 again in near future.
 
We also see constant collection on JKH by foreign party.  So if the bull remain ( seems it would) the chances of JKH going up is higher than  falling to 192 in near future.

I am saying this with logic  I can see, but CAL may know something I don't . They are a company with lot "heads"  and extrenal info.   I am me ( 1 person) with no such info.

On fundamental JKH looks overvalued but JKH is JKH.

May be this "sell" recommendation is due to uncertainity created by election feaver + warrant conversion date nearing?

There is almost an year for the first set of warrants to be converted, isn't it?

First Guy wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:

slstock wrote:I salute CAL for being bold enough to call a sell at this bull stage ( rarely people will do that).

But unless there is massive catastrophe ( like news that casino is cancelled in addition to part of their project plans )  or a market crash  I don't think JKH will  fall to Rs 192 again in near future.
 
We also see constant collection on JKH by foreign party.  So if the bull remain ( seems it would) the chances of JKH going up is higher than  falling to 192 in near future.

I am saying this with logic  I can see, but CAL may know something I don't . They are a company with lot "heads"  and extrenal info.   I am me ( 1 person) with no such info.

On fundamental JKH looks overvalued but JKH is JKH.

May be this "sell" recommendation is due to uncertainity created by election feaver + warrant conversion date nearing?

There is almost an year for the first set of warrants to be converted, isn't it?

True, but the space available for play narraws each day and also I think this recommendation is not for value investors but for speculaters and short term traders. Actually they should have elaborated on this aspect as each person has a different strategy.

hariesha wrote:CAL's reports are good and accurate.

But not with JKH and LLUB. For both they had sell recommendations for a considerable time now. But both went against them.  

I am not commenting about the recommendation. But we should respect CALs effort. They constantly express what they believe without considering public opinion.

The same person who wrote the report said in Feb 2012 that the IR project has a + Rs 92 on concept value and a + Rs 53 based on volatility upside.

See below link:

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Yes, situation has changed...but...

If him or his Team Members sees this: you are welcome to reply.

CAL got a few of its recommendations dead wrong. LLUB was one of them...I think they will be proved wrong on JKH too...

I look at it this way.. We need some sellers to buy JKH....It will probably come from CAL clients.. Some (possibly CAL clients) sold LLUB at 270 levels late last year till march this year thinking it will drop to 215.....well the rest is history