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Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans :: Equities :: Industry Analysis :: Power & Energy
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Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Please do your own research before making your investment decision.
First Guy- Posts : 2533
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pathfinder- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
chutiputha- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).
sashimaal- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Nuinth- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
sashimaal wrote:Thanks FG.
Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).
True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.
VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.
Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.
First Guy- Posts : 2533
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Karan- Posts : 58
Join date : 2014-02-25
Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
First Guy wrote:sashimaal wrote:Thanks FG.
Annualized PE based on current qtr may be a bit too risky for Companies such as HPFL, as it had just one good qtr and that is this qtr.
Maybe this is the turning point...bit risky (of course may lead to high gain for some who wants to take the risk).
True. But but I feel more can be expected of it in coming quarters. Click the pic to take you to the financials snapshot to see the trends in all these companies. Interesting that QoQ VPEL revenues and profit have dipped. All of these counters have unique points.
VPEL - strong dividend
VLL - adding capacity/buying stakes in other companies (PAP) etc., and starting to pay some good dividend
HPFL - just getting started and more to come perhaps
PAP - rather steady earnings compared to others.
Take March 2014 where most reported losses except PAP. Although Mar 2015 may not be the same, I expect some dip in earnings for Hydros this quarter QoQ.
sashimaal- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
My predictions about Hydro Power companies:
Trading prices in 12-15 months: Max to Min
HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP
Note: Do not act based on this . Before my 12-15 month range many things can happen. You have to follow trends and trade but keep in mind the end products. Two 'H's should give max returns in long term.
HPWR has reported losses due to the reasons we all know and it may create good opportunity to collect at bargain prices in next few moths. The other H has connected new generator to the grid in last April and I hope they will connect the other one, their best motor, this year. After that I hope to get divorced from H and marry the other H.
I like to use fundamentals like details as I go for long term .
No threat to locally produced hydropower in next few years because of the devaluation of our Rupee. I feel we may see 150/- US$ in 15-20 months if no strong external support gained.
chinwi- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
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slstock- Veteran
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.
Backstage- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Backstage wrote:I see two variables in this sector that are risky. 1. The weather patterns .2. Tariff changes.
If not for that, I would have thrown the kitchen sink into VPEL.
Tariff changes - not much info on that with me.
But as for weather pattern changes, I feel at least one or two quarter there will be good production due to good rainfall which is adequate to provide good earnings. With increased capacity from few companies, this should also be negated. But we have to look at the seasonality and average it out. For example, Dec 2014 results alone should not be taken for decision making. Check March 2014 quarter which was the worst in recent quarters. I guess we can expect reduced earnings in March 2015 as well but maybe not losses. (If we look only at one quarter people will end up giving target price like 200/- for a certain stock like one joker)
VPEL EPS reduced from 0.50/- to 0.37/- QoQ while the others improved. But VPEL is hot specially due to the large dividends at the moment.
disc: holding VPEL and small qty of HPFL
First Guy- Posts : 2533
Join date : 2014-02-22
Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Hence we can expect moderate or not-bad earnings for next qtr also. Then, APR-JUN is normally wet .
For HPFL they have Stellenberg this time which was not their during 2014 Jan-Mar.
We should know why VPEL under-performed while others grow QoQ. May be due to the locations of their pomphouses. Last year also it happened same way. JUL-SEP was better than OCT-DEC for VPEL.
chinwi- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
serene- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
DocStock- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
in this sector hpwr still reporting losses.
poor boy- Active Member
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
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First Guy wrote:This is based on Dec quarter numbers (including the ratios) and only FYI. Click on the pic to see trailing 12 month analysis.[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
Please do your own research before making your investment decision.
chutiputha- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit

Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it

Hope to hear others opinion
Crystal2008- Posts : 11
Join date : 2015-02-16
Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
I usuallu don't like to tell people directlu to buy/sell/hold.
But I think this may not be the time to sell this. Watch carefully and if there is a negative development you can dispose and take profit.
Crystal2008 wrote:i bought some VLL shares and holding for almost 1 year.
I bought this share at that time, because it was trading its lowest price and always saw director buying at least 2-3 times per month. So i thought, there would be some future potential for this share
Later, I did not sell even i saw few times, share went to 6.00 - 6.30 range.
I saw their earnings are growing for time to time
Their yearly EPS was .34 in 2014 and for this year it's .75 already for 3Q, That is earnings increase of more than 100%
Currently i'm happy with my 78% unrealized profit![]()
Currently Share is trading in large volumes for last few weeks even before releasing their Dec accounts
After releasing Dec accounts, and considering their growth, i feel this share worth 7.00 - 7.50 range. I doubt that do i wait little bit more time to sell it![]()
Hope to hear others opinion
_________________
Never listen to anyone including myself without your own study. Only few truly genuine people exist in this world.
Please read : [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]
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If someone finds an Avatar of me in cyberspace commenting and you are unsure, Keep asking deeper questions until you are satisfied to distinguish between the Real and the Avatar. The real answers questions directly and deeply [You must be registered and logged in to see this image.]
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slstock- Veteran
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
baller- Posts : 26
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
poor boy- Active Member
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
baller- Posts : 26
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
My predictions about Hydro Power companies:
Trading prices in 12-15 months: Max to Min
HPWR > HPFL > VPEL > VLL > PAP
Time travelling ? or is it happening too early than I thought ?
Go ... HP go.... just 20 cents to beat VP !
chinwi- Top contributor
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
Karan- Posts : 58
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Re: Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter
l sold my VPEL and HPFL
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