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» What Would You Do?
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» Tourism Sector
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» LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)
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» HAYL.N0000 Hayleys PLC
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» Sri Lanka sets US$3.5bn tea export target for 2030
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» Tea: July 2019 national average shows gains month on month
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» JKH.N0000
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» Nestle NEST
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» Ceylon Tobacco CTC
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» LLUB.N0000 (CHEVRON LUBRICANTS LANKA PLC)
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» VFIN - where the journey leads it?
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» UAL.N0000 ( UNION ASSURANCE PLC )
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» SPEN.N0000
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» Lanka Tiles
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» Expolanka
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» Tile - Snapshot
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» DPL.N0000 (Dankotuwa Porcelain PLC)
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» නිරුවත
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» HAYC - Haycarb
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» Chemanex
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Fed Rate hike , Rs Devaluation PART 2 : Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

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Post by yellow knife on Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:35 am

slstock wrote:
yellow knife wrote:

....forum is active.( But not the market. )



1) Lets go one step at a time friend.  More people are active means more the market can get active too.

2) Well whether the market is active or not depends on how we view it.

ex 1 : If some shares in your portfolio is holding ground when other are loosing 20-30% that could be an active  achievement in a way

ex 2 : Even in  a market like this, if you can find occasional trading ops with your medium term shares ( even if at a loss trading somewhat helps to average atleast)  


ex 3: you can find more and more "gems" to match prices of 2012, might be a joy for some collectors




Totally agreed

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Post by The Invisible on Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:17 pm

In a market like this day trades can become long investments and long investments too can become day trades. You need to be on alert all the time if involve at this stage.

or else the other way is that following Warren Buffet and bag some good stocks with attractive earnings growth and forget assuming that CSE is closed for next five years.
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Post by serene on Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:13 pm

Thanks All.
Last two days have been really fruitful.
Learned loads of things.These have more value than that of things in investing books which are enriched with experience of elsewhere.These are genuine learning of investors who involves with CSE.Above all learning of the people who share their precious learning for the betterment of fellow investors.Isn't that wonderful? Cool

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Post by Ethical Trader on Fri Oct 12, 2018 5:16 pm

Thanks guys. Very educative stuff.
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Post by smallville on Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:49 pm

Wait till market turns.. All will return Very Happy

BTW.. turn is near....
But is it 5800?.....
5600??........ Or 5200?........
Or 5000?.. Hmmm.. u will know... EPS is coming lu neh?

Uhhh.. surely bottom cant be 4750 nuh?

My Buying strategy is - Buy in chunks.. And the golden rule is not to average down more than once

Cheers!!!

_________________
I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
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Post by smallville on Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:52 pm

slstock wrote:

Specially penny shares losing 10 cents even can mean 10% loss .  Ex : If you buy Y share today at Rs 1 for a day trade and missed to sell same day and then couldn't check market for 3 days, maybe now it could be down 30 cents. ( 30% loss).  Then day trades can become long term holdings.

It has happened to me too.

Jeez.. me too.. Hav 1000 ACME left which the sell didnt get fully executed with last run to 5.50 or something.. Now going at buying price..

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I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:23 pm

smallville wrote:Wait till market turns.. All will return Very Happy

BTW.. turn is near....
But is it 5800?.....
5600??........ Or 5200?........
Or 5000?.. Hmmm.. u will know... EPS is coming lu neh?

Uhhh.. surely bottom cant be 4750 nuh?

My Buying strategy is - Buy in chunks.. And the golden rule is not to average down more than once

Cheers!!!


5300 is the Rock bottom to happen in Dec.

Want to bet something ?

Yin-Yang
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:29 pm

The Invisible wrote:
+
+

May be preparing to average down in advance.

My Invisible friend,

Those are the words of a panicked mouse..

As Yellow Boy put it as if heard from Buffet uncle;
Panicked mice will ultimately feed themselves to patient cats.
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Post by xmart on Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:15 am

slstock wrote:X,

Yes, short term/medium term trades can become long term holdings if we don't monitor the share movement  daily or control our emotions.

Specially penny shares losing 10 cents even can mean 10% loss .  Ex : If you buy Y share today at Rs 1 for a day trade and missed to sell same day and then couldn't check market for 3 days, maybe now it could be down 30 cents. ( 30% loss).  Then day trades can become long term holdings.

It has happened to me too.

It happens to me while back when RAL sold Richlife I miscalculated capital gain for RAL and bought maybe 500,000 or 1Mn shares around 5.5/= share. it was SLS asked me how did you come to the figure and then all of the sudden I realized that I haven't considered acquisition price of Richlife and then sold out around 5 I guess.

anyway, in addition to my above comment, most of us in CSE are not long-term investors, where even Dr. Senthilverl is a trader. common investors just like myself may put 5Mn, 10 Mn max to CSE because FD rates 10-12% per annum is not enough for us at the beginning of the investment. hence, I daresay, every person here is a trader at the beginning. when you are passing the stage I mentioned in the above comment, and reading and seeing other investors talk about long-term, fundamental stocks, and the Buffett, then with the overall frustration of trading losses you start to believe that we are now mature and in long-term investment.

we read about Buffett and his famous quotes like
Warren Buffett wrote:Do not put all eggs in one basket
Warren Buffett wrote:Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years

Well, Uncle Buffett is like Dhammika Perera they buy companies to control. so it doesn't matter market is closed for them or not. besides, there is another quote from Buffett,
Warren Buffett wrote:Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing
Warren Buffett wrote:If you aren’t thinking about owning a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes

Buffett himself is a wonderful investor who can identify good companies way before they perform. but would his strategies suite common investors like us? rather not, we if diversify our small capitals among 10-15 companies its very unlikely you get annualized return over 15% including dividant. baskets Buffett referring is not shares, what he meant was equity, real estate, and industries (financial and non- financial) and with his size capital (when he declare that wisdom in quotes) probably he can diversify in hundred of different baskets with controlling power.

so, here comes us. ordinary investors/ traders at the most illiquid market (as my experience) there are few players who push shares up and down, too much dependency on foreign purchases, declined economic development and controversial deals. therefore, in an unmatured market like CSE, even growth stocks are in cyclic waves. so, being a never sell investor is a hard but poor choice. just like being a virgin.

for example, let's say someone bought JKH at 50 Rs at 2009 Jan. if he is a never sell investor as of now his capital return is 200%, 20% annualized return while if he bought at 50 in Jan 2009 and sold it out in Oct 2014 ( let's not take 300+ fancy figures for selling, at that time JKH was supposed to go beyond 600+ with casino and warrant prospective- rather, in 2014 Oct seasonal investor would fundamentally and technically see headwind) at Rs. 250 he would have around 450% return on investment, annualized 75% return from JKH.

so there will be plenty of opportunity to in and out for people like us, that can be 1 month, 1 year or 5 year doesn't matter. the important point is the art of picking up the right companies and art of selling at right time, right price.

another example is, LFIN is a good solid company, we all agree I guess. in 2010 I bought LFIN at around 140 Rs and sold it for 250 in one week. 80% return in one week. perhaps people who bought LFIN in mid-2011 would see around 30% capital appreciation for all these 7 years.

therefore, like many things, there are no universal rules or holy grails for investing or trading. mastering own method and doing it better than other will make you a successful trader/ investor.

Cheer!

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Post by serene on Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:05 am

Food for thought.
Excellent write-up X.
I'm also trying to be a kind of person whome you are referring.
One could read thousands of books could follow certain success stories but real learning comes after several failed attempts.
We should also be mindful that eventhough there are success stories of super rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

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Post by smallville on Sun Oct 14, 2018 8:01 am

Yin-Yang wrote:
smallville wrote:Wait till market turns.. All will return Very Happy

BTW.. turn is near....
But is it 5800?.....
5600??........ Or 5200?........
Or 5000?.. Hmmm.. u will know... EPS is coming lu neh?

Uhhh.. surely bottom cant be 4750 nuh?

My Buying strategy is - Buy in chunks.. And the golden rule is not to average down more than once

Cheers!!!


5300 is the Rock bottom to happen in Dec.

Want to bet something ?


Nuh.. Im small man u noh, cant afford to lose.. need CSE money for food... I take your word and refrain from buying Razz

_________________
I take risks as a Trader and I select stocks based on Tech and daily Cash in/out. Therefore, my methods may not suit u.. so DYO analysis before making any decisions.
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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:45 am

smallville wrote:
Yin-Yang wrote:
smallville wrote:Wait till market turns.. All will return Very Happy

BTW.. turn is near....
But is it 5800?.....
5600??........ Or 5200?........
Or 5000?.. Hmmm.. u will know... EPS is coming lu neh?

Uhhh.. surely bottom cant be 4750 nuh?

My Buying strategy is - Buy in chunks.. And the golden rule is not to average down more than once

Cheers!!!


5300 is the Rock bottom to happen in Dec.

Want to bet something ?


Nuh.. Im small man u noh, cant afford to lose.. need CSE money for food...  I take your word and refrain from buying Razz

What makes you hurt most;

Picking a wrong trade or missing a golden opportunity?

Both have happened to you; right?
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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:52 am

Most of the success stories that we read often are cooked up lies and sugar coated.
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell is a good book to read (if you have not done already).
serene wrote:
We should also be mindful that even though there are success stories of super-rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:21 pm

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Most of the success stories that we read often are cooked up lies and sugar coated.
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell is a good book to read (if you have not done already).
serene wrote:
We should also be mindful that even though there are success stories of super-rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

https://money.howstuffworks.com/con-artist.htm
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Post by malanp on Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:38 pm

stock market success stories, and failure stories are not written onto  books,,

Books are written by people who are successful in writing.

Successors and failures, both are hidden from public. and we never know them.

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Most of the success stories that we read often are cooked up lies and sugar coated.
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell is a good book to read (if you have not done already).
serene wrote:
We should also be mindful that even though there are success stories of super-rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

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Post by Yin-Yang on Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:10 pm

History is written by the victors! - Winston Churchill
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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:42 pm

And losers cry foul only.  Very Happy  Very Happy

Often, we get to read biographies of many successful people all over the World.

Those stories sell and that is why publishers go looking for them.

But if taken percentage-wise, such successes are even less than 1%, compared to the world population.

Those who read such inspiring stories pick up a clue or two and try to apply in their own life but with very little success or none at all.

Can success be replicated?

Failures are galore and they can be seen everywhere.

Can failures be avoided?

But, if publishers are keen even finding stories which are of total failures, the trend of 1% versus 99% can be changed.

Because, some others have already made those mistakes in their own lives; so the rest do not have to, being well aware of the pitfalls on the way.

Although the odds are less on the side of being successful, the chance of success and or failure has the equal opportunity.
Yin-Yang wrote:History is written by the victors! - Winston Churchill

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Post by xmart on Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:48 pm

thanks, Kith. that was an eye-opener.

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:But, if publishers are keen even finding stories which are of total failures, the trend of 1% versus 99% can be changed.

Because, some others have already made those mistakes in their own lives; so the rest do not have to, being well aware of the pitfalls on the way.

Although the odds are less on the side of being successful, the chance of success and or failure has the equal opportunity.

people don't want to hear bitter truth. everyone wants to win lotteries, everyone dream of becoming Warren Buffett or George Soros since the publisher hide the bitter part from readers or sugar coat it.

only academics study failures in the classroom as case studies.

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Post by serene on Sun Oct 14, 2018 7:53 pm

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Most of the success stories that we read often are cooked up lies and sugar coated.
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell is a good book to read (if you have not done already).
serene wrote:
We should also be mindful that even though there are success stories of super-rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

Thanks Kith.
Is this the book.. http://banco.az/sites/default/files/books/outliers-the_story_of_success.pdf

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Post by malanp on Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:35 pm


Other people failures are the pillars of ones success..

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Post by smallville on Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:14 am

Yin-Yang wrote:
What makes you hurt most;

Picking a wrong trade or missing a golden opportunity?

Both have happened to you; right?

Yes.. TA can show that some share can breakout or making a pattern but it aint accounted for sudden pushes or dumps.. Say if someone wants to dump JKH at 130, a massive quantity - there's nothing you can do as u already bought at support level of 130-135 thinking this level might hold. (But one could have always wait for an up signal rather than buying at a support). Although this level is a a good support, there's nothing u can do than holding.

Perhaps one sees some crap at certain levels - those are lower in recent terms.. Yet u omit them for crap and next thing u see is they up 10% - 20% next day.

Then again, u avg down at a certain place or u buy some funda share and wait.. your share is up 2-3 rupees but others up 10-20% - now what.. Its an opportunity loss.

So making right choice is an ART right?

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Post by Yin-Yang on Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:43 am

smallville wrote:
Yin-Yang wrote:
What makes you hurt most;

Picking a wrong trade or missing a golden opportunity?

Both have happened to you; right?

Yes.. TA can show that some share can breakout or making a pattern but it aint accounted for sudden pushes or dumps.. Say if someone wants to dump JKH at 130, a massive quantity - there's nothing you can do as u already bought at support level of 130-135 thinking this level might hold. (But one could have always wait for an up signal rather than buying at a support). Although this level is a a good support, there's nothing u can do than holding.

Perhaps one sees some crap at certain levels - those are lower in recent terms.. Yet u omit them for crap and next thing u see is they up 10% - 20% next day.

Then again, u avg down at a certain place or u buy some funda share and wait.. your share is up 2-3 rupees but others up 10-20% - now what.. Its an opportunity loss.

So making right choice is an ART right?

Happy to see your long answer mate. It shows your interests.

There are theories on how you make choices.
My favorite theory is Subconscious mind theory.

When a trader is experienced enough, he develops a sense to sync with the market based on subtle clues 'invisible' to the 'conscious' mind.

Our 'thinking' happens at 'conscious' level. So, a master trader would make their actions without thinking, at 'subconscious' level.

There is also a theory says, the subconscious mind is associated with the right side of the brain. They also say, 'arts' are associated with the right side of the brain.

So, you can say; art and right choice both have some common roots.
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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:47 am

Yes.
Thanks for the useful link, although I have the book already with me.
This another good one though it has no direct link to shares but has a big impact on the bigger picture.
https://www.jamiiforums.com/attachments/gideons-spies-ideusex-2-pdf.144740/
serene wrote:
කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:Most of the success stories that we read often are cooked up lies and sugar coated.
Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell is a good book to read (if you have not done already).
serene wrote:
We should also be mindful that even though there are success stories of super-rich there are hardly any stories of millions of investors who failed miserably in this game of investing.

Thanks Kith.
Is this the book.. http://banco.az/sites/default/files/books/outliers-the_story_of_success.pdf

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Post by කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා on Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:49 am

This is exactly what one of my military expert friends told me after reading my blog. Very Happy
xmart wrote:
only academics study failures in the classroom as case studies.

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Post by Backstage on Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:57 pm

I feel that currency,trade and commodities will stabilize early next year. (oil story is a worry though). The debt repayment hits a sweet spot in 2023/24. I intend to try and hustle a 30 to 35 % return from the market with short and medium term plays and throw in the kitchen sink in 2024 and build my fixed income portfolio as I dont intend to be gazing at computer screens in my latter years.

Looking at reducing my Finco exposure and collect TJL. 2019 should be a good year for TJ with a few muted quarters coming up.
Btw, I saw the Neilsons Business Confidence Index imposed on the ASI chart since around 2010. Time to buy seems to be when the when the BCI is down, it has plunged last two months. Is there enough blood on the streets yet ? a bit more maybe ?
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