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Post by First Guy on Sun Jun 28, 2015 12:54 pm


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Most talked about in this forum are TPL and WATA. One I was interested in is KGAL.

Seems there's one similar to TPL. I can remember someone talked about this some time back.
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Post by pathfinder on Sun Jun 28, 2015 7:07 pm

Thanks friend one like from me.
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Post by yellow knife on Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:27 pm

thanx FG

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Post by First Guy on Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:45 pm

But is there something wrong in how these are trading? If you draw the trendline, it won't be how it's supposed to be. But then again we are comparing only ROE and P/E.
Book value may not be that important here but since earnings may include fair value changes, cashflow might be a useful pointer. Unfortunately I don't have those values readily available.
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Post by yellow knife on Sun Jun 28, 2015 9:58 pm

Real problem is predicting future based on past performance

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Post by Jana1 on Mon Jun 29, 2015 6:28 am

Thanks FG

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Post by First Guy on Mon Jun 29, 2015 8:04 am

yellow knife wrote:Real problem is predicting future based on past performance

True. Long time back I held HOPL. Now only KGAL (small quantity) as I view KGAL differently from others which can 'survive' and make a decent profit regardless of the situation due to their investments.
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Post by HUNTER on Mon Jun 29, 2015 3:03 pm

First Guy wrote:But is there something wrong in how these are trading? If you draw the trendline, it won't be how it's supposed to be. But then again we are comparing only ROE and P/E.
.....
.

Good presentation FG +

Wonder if we have a way of showing more than 3~4 parameters in the same graph.
I can vaguely imagine a 3 dimensional graph for 3 parameters but beyond that, is inconceivable.

Anybody has any experience with 'multi dimensional' graphs?
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Post by dhanurrox on Mon Jun 29, 2015 4:28 pm

HUNTER wrote:
First Guy wrote:But is there something wrong in how these are trading? If you draw the trendline, it won't be how it's supposed to be. But then again we are comparing only ROE and P/E.
.....
.

Good presentation FG +

Wonder if we have a way of showing more than 3~4 parameters in the same graph.
I can vaguely imagine a 3 dimensional graph for 3 parameters but beyond that, is inconceivable.

Anybody has any experience with 'multi dimensional' graphs?
giving weights and getting a figure is the answer.graphing possible but hard to understand.

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Post by yellow knife on Mon Jun 29, 2015 5:33 pm

Kegalle is too much into Rubber where the rubber price will remain lower as long as petrol price remain lower in the world market..

When comparing PE and EPS I dont think Kegalle Plantations PLC as attractive at current level..


2015201420132012201120102009200820072006
EPS5.0813.8418.9330.7935.3315.047.117.112.457.66
PE ratio16.897.595.923.345.873.122.683.513.375.22

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Post by First Guy on Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:22 pm

When compared with other plantations KGAL has the lowest amount of biological assets as more than half their assets are in financial investments. So I won't look at it as a pure plantation company. only 50% of total equity is in biological assets, next lowest is WATA with 78% while all the others are 100% and above. The investments may be giving it some cushioning during these 'hard-times' but may not allow the company to maximize profits when the 'good-times' come. Also KGAL might be using the returns from (net) investments for operations, but I like to separate this from the core business. As far as cashflows go, I find TPL the most attractive (based on last 12 months), followed by HOPL, ELPL and BOPL.
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Post by First Guy on Mon Jun 29, 2015 10:33 pm

yellow knife wrote:Kegalle is too much into Rubber where the rubber price will remain lower as long as petrol price remain lower in the world market..

When comparing PE and EPS I dont think Kegalle Plantations PLC as attractive at current level..


2015201420132012201120102009200820072006
EPS5.0813.8418.9330.7935.3315.047.117.112.457.66
PE ratio16.897.595.923.345.873.122.683.513.375.22


KGAL reported EPS of 9.16/- and not 5.08/-

But needless to say almost everything from investments
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Post by yellow knife on Tue Jun 30, 2015 7:29 am

well I took company EPS where as you have considered Group EPS..

I agree with you on biological asset matter..

The positive qualitative factor of Kegalle is its managed by Dr Sena Yaddehige and team.. Even when the rubber price dropped to bottom they manage to make profit and declare dividends..

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Post by HUNTER on Tue Jun 30, 2015 8:53 am

IMO, As far as the share valuation is concerned, we need to consider (assigned to shareholder-) group figures (Not company).

Any other views?
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Post by First Guy on Wed Jul 01, 2015 11:06 am

HUNTER wrote:
First Guy wrote:But is there something wrong in how these are trading? If you draw the trendline, it won't be how it's supposed to be. But then again we are comparing only ROE and P/E.
.....
.

Good presentation FG +

Wonder if we have a way of showing more than 3~4 parameters in the same graph.
I can vaguely imagine a 3 dimensional graph for 3 parameters but beyond that, is inconceivable.

Anybody has any experience with 'multi dimensional' graphs?

It would get a bit confusing in addition to being difficult to generate.
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Post by chutiputha on Thu Jul 09, 2015 2:00 pm

Overall Plantation Sector..

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6 Month Period

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Post by First Guy on Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:25 pm

First Guy wrote:When compared with other plantations KGAL has the lowest amount of biological assets as more than half their assets are in financial investments. So I won't look at it as a pure plantation company. only 50% of total equity is in biological assets, next lowest is WATA with 78% while all the others are 100% and above. The investments may be giving it some cushioning during these 'hard-times' but may not allow the company to maximize profits when the 'good-times' come. Also KGAL might be using the returns from (net) investments for operations, but I like to separate this from the core business. As far as cashflows go, I find TPL the most attractive (based on last 12 months), followed by HOPL, ELPL and BOPL.

My above positive view on KGAL was based on the amount of financial assets that they have. We should have known the end game of RPC plantation management's end game better.

Now that some good chunk of cash out, we need to analyze it further. But the money would not have been generating adequate returns thus returned to shareholders (parent)

Again, we are assuming that the announcement is correct. Bummer, if not.
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Post by CK on Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:42 am

time to see again.. flower
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Post by CK on Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:52 am

I am focusing mask and ldev seriously. Very Happy
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