LIOC.N0000 (Lanka IOC PLC)

On technical grounds, there's clearly a double bottom chart pattern (green color). Which means upside is imminent.
Once it breaks 37 the next barriers are 40 and 43-44 levels.

But note that if it doesn't pass 43-44 levels, it will be a double top which is a negative pattern.

at 30-33 levels, abt 11 million shares traded and since then only 2 million shares traded up to now.
My guess is LIOC is still under collection so can even trade between 35-37 for another couple of days. But with the EU news, it can also get activated and break 38 soon.

Disc - I have LIOC in my PF.

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Thanks smallville..

Thanks, my gut feeling too is, it will touch previous highs, in the background of continuing low crude oil prices.

Thanks smallville

Thanks Small

I added Barbados , a country that try to maintain fixed exchange rate and to maintain free education and free medical services..It seems Norway and Barbados are higher in Oil price.

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I wonder whether any correlation there but if a fixed sum ( % ) is guaranteed to be given to education, then I am for increasing the price of oil.
Not otherwise.

yellow knife wrote:I added Barbados , a country that try to maintain fixed exchange rate and to maintain free education and free medical services..It seems Norway and Barbados are higher in Oil price.

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As I said, LIOC is stuck at important barrier of 37.. Once broken 40 and 45 will be the other 2 points. It can now slowdown a bit even before the next move.

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Thanx Small

Page 81 onward in Annual Report 2015 is on Petroleum.

It starts showing a chart with oil price declining in the world market. Let me reproduce a chart we discussed earlier again.

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Quoted from CBSL Annual Report 2015

Domestic retail prices of petroleum products were reduced substantially in January 2015, in response to declining international oil prices.

The substantial reduction in domestic petroleum prices in early 2015 and the increased number of vehicles in the country raised the domestic demand for petroleum from the transportation sector.

Local sales of Petrol grew by 20.9% and the sale of diesel to the transportation sector increased by 3%. Yet total sales of diesel decreased by 7.7% due to the reduction of fuel oil based power generation owing to high hydro and coal power generation.

In spite of falling international oil prices, the CPC's financial position weakened during the year. As per the provisional financial statements CPC reported a loss of Rs 18.4 Billion  in 2015 compared to marginal profit of Rs 1.5 Billion in 2014.

The main contributory factors for the weakling of the financial position of CPC included the substantial reduction of domestic petroleum prices at the beginning of the year without commensurate duty reduction and the depreciation of the rupee during the latter part of the year, which enlarged the CPCs trade payable and liabilities to the banking sector.

Thanks YK.

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Thanks
YK must be happy to see the good earnings of LIOC

Many investor firms believe oil run is over (A bear run ?) and oversupply prevails hence will cause a further southward movement. If rupee strengthens further, LIOC might benefit more. It's obvious that government no way give a another price slash.

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HAL9000 wrote:

Rana wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Thanks
YK must be happy to see the good earnings of LIOC

Yeah Happy to see the performance and sad to see the performance. When LIOC makes a profit of 2.2 Billion CPC makes 18 Billion loss for the same period. CPC made 1.4 Billion of profit last year and even after this massive oil price drop in world market CPC is making massive losses.

After all I am a tax paying Sri Lankan... and not an Indian...

For investing I have chosen LIOC but being a Sri Lankan I would have been many times happy to see CPC making profits and getting out of the burden zone of treasury and Sri Lankan tax payer.

Can any one see the crazy knot of government policy on domestic  oil price?

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TAs on oil analysis



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CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices continue to tread water in a narrowing range below the $52/bbl figure. Near-term support is at 45.60, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a daily close above falling trend line resistance – now at 49.57 – targets the 23.6% Fib expansionat 51.86.

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Import tax on Diesel is increased by Rs 6 and thus Rs 15 tax per liter will be charged instead of current Rs 9 per liter.

Ceylon Petroleum Corporation which made billions of losses last year has recorded of profit of Rs 3.5 Billion within the first four months of this year as per Minister Chandima Weerakkody..

****************Source Divaina 12th July 2016


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LIOC has increased price of two types of oil by Rs 2.00. Thus Extra Mile Diesel and Euro Three Petrol liter has been increased by Rs 2.

YK, can you share the link which reports price hike?

economy next said first four months profit was massive 21.5 bil.

"CPC had made operational profits of 27.5 billion rupees in the first four months of the year, but finance costs lowered it to 21.4 billion rupees, the finance ministry said."


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From another news
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"Revenue from excise duty on petroleum products shot up 614.7 percent to Rs. 17,221 million during the first four months of 2016, compared the same period of 2015.

This was because of increased demand for petroleum products stemming from the reduction of retail prices of petrol and diesel and the rise of vehicle fleet by 11.6 percent in the review period. "

So one year of good vehicle sales in the country has increased the number of vehicles drastically and now it is resulting in more to the coffers via taxes on fuel.

FG

Source of CPC profit is Lankadeepa 12th July 2016 and page 14

And the same CPC that reports different yet high Earnings for the first four months with profit recorded like this in Central Banks annual report earlier.

In spite of falling international oil prices, the CPC's financial position weakened during the year. As per the provisional financial statements CPC reported a loss of Rs 18.4 Billion  in 2015 compared to marginal profit of Rs 1.5 Billion in 2014.

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So one year of good vehicle sales in the country has increased the number of vehicles drastically and now it is resulting in more to the coffers via taxes on fuel.

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Loss of 18 bil matches the story on economynext so 21 bil profit could be correct. I would go with economynext than lankadeepa.

Thanks for car registration data. Just like small and I said in some other thread, around 3 times the usual registrations happened in 2015 and if used regularly will use up fuel (although hybrid) and pay taxes.

should go to a shed and see price hike. but your post says only for Euro 3 and extra mile diesel which are LIOC products. normally fuel price hike is news, surprised not to see it yet in online news sites.

I was little positive on LIOC after looking at news on CPC profit. If CPC can make profit LIOC must make more than that.

I am awaiting to see the results of LIOC and its true that if CPC make such a profit LIOC must make more . Yet CPC owns the lion's share in oil market of Sri Lanka.

If CPC can make profit LIOC must make more than that.

This oil price hike of LIOC  was on yesterday's newspapers as well..last time they bore the loss on import tax but this time they are not ready to bear the loss but transfer it to consumer.. That is the indication with price hike.

LIOC slashes prices of its own fuel varieties...


Sri Lanka's only private owned oil company said it was reducing the prices of two of tis own oil vaireties namely Xtra Premium Euro petrol and Xtra Mile Diesel.

Even though government policy is to maintain fixed price for petrol and diesel, special varieties do not fall into that category...

It seems now LIOC has found means to slowly spend its Mountain of Cash.


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A practical question:

As a results of ongoing negative cash-flow, what do you think will happen to LIOC share prices next week?