Hello and CSE ?

Am Still  Alive !  


Prelude





During past many months, I did not keep track or engaged on my separate email for CSE/forums , forum PMs and Facebook page for several reasons.

Am making this post especially as a mark of recognition /respect to several/many people who I see sent messages  in the past few months. Thank you.  Who are they ? You know who you are who  cared  right  


Through our pseudo name,  some of us might have met , communicated or helped 1000s of people spanning the last 7-8 years ;  for a cause more than our personal benefit or agendas ; only a few amongst the many 1000s will make an imprint (  once the personal benefit or need factor goes away many disappear anyway ).
 

Many thanks for reviving hope and making known there is at least a fraction of people at these CSE/forums/SL, who do remember their past,  not remember someone for a personal need,  but remain  gentleman and ladies for a superior cause :  MORALS ,  ETHICS and to Stand for WHAT IS RIGHT ! That is the need of the hour for the deteriorating Sri Lankanism

The wise will only read and take the facts to make ones judgement.  
Usually in a materialistic society , when you support someone,  they become your friends !  When you in all good faith try to point  a negative or a different point for betterment/impartiality ( even when it  is a fact and the truth)  tables turn.  Sad nature of humans!

Sometimes the one we see as our enemy in hindsight  might be our  best friend.  The reality  we don't see/ understand now ... we will understand  in time to come only. Then our "self made enemies" may be be thought as friends. But it will be too late then as some might not be on earth.   Hasn't it happened to you before with someone? Somethings  what my Father did for me , which I may have not liked much as I did  not understand  when I was young ,... I regret now after realizing the facts/truth.

In life , once you get the opportunity to meet , associate people from different parts of the world you start to realize 2 things


1) What a blessed Country Sri Lanka is  ( as far the Country/ Mother nature is concerned)

2) What a morally degraded majority/people  ( of all races) is doing to make a Wonderland go backwards and not forwards ( much has to do with ATTITUDES, PRINCIPLES , Morals , Decency and Ethics) .


Think about it , what good is to  have Cocoa by the bushels if you don't know how to make Chocolate.

Then there are countries like , Switzerland, who does not have cocoa  , but imports them to
 make the Best chocolate in the world! What makes the difference ?

In the end its all about determination,  morals, decency and  ethics that maketh the man !

They Build Las Vegas in the middle of no where ( ie  a desert).

They built Australia from a place used for convicts.

They build Singapore from a bunch of people  ( Malays, Indian and Chinese)  who amazingly
beats the probability to get along but make a country that is richer  and also respected
by the world.  

Show a Singapore passport vs Sri Lankan passport to see the difference of respect. Sad but true.

But both countries lie in Asia !  

If you show  India,  Malaysia or China passport  the respect shown is lesser . Am not making  any biases here but stating the reality . But suddenly same people  from these 3 countries but with Passport issued from Singapore is respected more ! WHY?


Short term MONEY , POWER and  FAME  IS NOT EVERYTHING my Good people.
I though of adding depth for a conversation here for anyone who want to think about it deeper.




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CSE  






CSE was and is dead for long time now !   Why is it ?
How is all the nonsense I said  above ( surely it will be to some) related to CSE?


1) Okay, when I said dead .. ofcourse some shares here and there can be manipulated with news to make short term  gains ( and then they fall to it knees after the news is over).
Look at SFS and JINS.  JINS is a share people despised  some years ago when we talked about it at Rs 14-15.  Suddenly it became god! But now after the run to Rs 36 where will it end up finally ? Now it is Rs 25 .

In reality CSE was clinically dead  for a while (until  a conscious mass revival  happens)

Part of that revival has to come from care for CSE from the GOVERNMENT.

Yes  present Government has to take part of the blame for neglecting CSE.
They failed in this aspect and really did a bad job with respect to CSE.  


2)  Lets Face it.. all world markets are  run and are valued  on Fundamentals on the long run.
   It is a FACT!  Not a myth  

When a big buyer or a fund buys a share, they buy on value or expected value,  not on any other factor.  Why do you buy or sell gold ?  For the same reason.

So the question is why at CSE,

i)  a  EPS around 22 and NAV 127 share was trading at Rs 60s while
ii)  minus eps ( loss making) , minus NAV 2 share is trading at Rs 2 !


In a developed market , above Share discrepancy is rare or maybe not happen even.


You see..  when there was no food, in certain parts of the world, they used  to eat barks of trees as there was no other option.  

Some killed  pets  to make meals.   In some parts of the world Dogs are still eaten . To this day  it is  continuing  as habit  even if there is other food .  Vietnam, China, Korea for example does it still.


Am sure many here by now  know how CSE and Sri Lankans clockwork right?


Can we relate all this to CSE ? Once we start looking things deeper and not on surface or short term need, it is very easily explain. It partly due to human mentality and insecurity.

Political insecurity, no policy consistency and lack of faith in our own government and people
is killing CSE though some companies are earning better and better.

When a Lotus blooms in Muddy waters , sadly though lovely as it is , people don't go there
to pick it. It is neglected.

Did you know Salt was more desired than Gold at one time in History !

But for some easily obtainable Cow Dung is more useful as it is readily at hand !  


Ps :  Btw for anyone interested in the bizarre, in certain parts of Thailand , they eat a soup called Cow Shit juice Soup !!! Yes it is real !)


So until such time we learn to analyze and find real value in the only the really valuable, as per CSE, or in real life  we will find short term excuses to make soup from Cow Poop or eat tree bark as it will solve our immediate hunger ( temporarily).  But is it a long term solutions for survival?
Think  ?






WE SHOULD KNOW ONE THING About CSE.
UNTIL A MASS  MARKET MENTAL SHIFT AND REVIVAL  HAPPENS CSE CAN  STAY DEAD.
Shares running here and there is not going to help overall CSE.
We need a consistent market revival based on value shares running ( so they have
reason to hold value after the run without falling back to its knees) if we want
to see CSE up again.


Then All shares will move. Everyone including investors, traders , gamblers  will be happy!

How many of you figure how many world markets ( in Asia including ) gained 20-30% last year while CSE was dead ! HOW SAD !


So who can revive CSE?  Suddas? Government? Us?

Answer is,  if all concerned parties get together ,  including the government, CSE can be revived easily. Some neglected shares easily needs 50-80% share runs from now  to update their value! For the patient it is a selected gold mine !  


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CSE ways !


Time to Time once dead shares/sectors come alive and make news.
Some of them are  called cyclic shares.


Do you remember the time when Plantation was a downer for several years? Nobody wanted.
Suddenly for the past year ... it became gold!
Now start to think... how long will it remain so?

Do you remember the Poultry sector interest ?

Do you remember the Construction sector interest ?


Time to time .. we find temporary ways to find sunshine to make hay with shares.

But we sadly neglect , one reality.

The Lotuses keep blooming even in muddy waters and they continue to do so while neglected.
In the mean time people find things to  satisfy temporary needs.

As for Lotuses ..  there are couple of sectors that has been blooming relatively consistently in times  of good and bad.

I personally have mentioned them before over posts.

Let me pick one of them straight out now and repeat again : Banks and Finance companies.

Amongst them ,  its time someone studies/recognize  the performance of selected Finance companies .  LFIN, CFIN, CDB, VFIN, SFIN I see  a good future.



1) LFIN

   LFIN is in a position to  give nearly a cumulative 10% dividend this year.
   Just  paid Rs 7. Next dividend can be around Rs 4 ( total Rs 11) in May or June.
   Next year how much ???  You do your own  study

  All that needs to said about LFIN was identified , predicted in the below thread many year ago
   http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t5227-lfin-future


2) CFIN :
   When the market revival happens this share has room to run more.  Is trading much below
   Assets.  It should  trade above CDB  for some years ( though valuation in time will catch  up)  due to  stability. It already recovered from Rs 80 to Rs   105.



3) VFIN

  Remember some years ago I talked about VFIn highly when it was in the Rs 30s.
  When it hit Rs 70s , when people had lot of interest  , I became the bad sheep to say I had concerns  of a right issue so wait.

See below what was said last :
http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t5227p275-lfin-future#82267

Now there is indeed a right issue.  But after the right issue this company will become strong.

What will DP do will it is another question



4) CDB ...

All I had to say about CDB was said here. Also commented on it when it was Rs 28.

http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t2657-cdb-the-past-and-the-future?highlight=cdb+future

What is the value now?
What is their EPS by March 2018 ( hopefully can they make it around Rs 22 ?)
What is the Net Assert Value ?


It time CDB management gave boost , upping it dividend a lot from it Rs 3.5 which was last updated 3 year ago. A Rs 20-22 share needs to give 20-25% dividend atleast.
CDB management ,  time to reward your patient long term share holders ( I am one)


5) SFIN

Time still may not be right just now for SFIN, but I see SFIN future alright after Hayleys buying Singer.


6) ALLI  is another good fundamental share. But relatively I have preference for another share over it   based on the management and fundamentals. But again ALLI presently is fundamentally good , giving a good dividend, trading around Rs 70.

7) COCR ,

What can I say.
When  almost everybody was ecstatic over COCR, I and handful of others continuously warned  about it risks and dangers . Such posts are on this forum and many times on Facebook.

Some tried to fall into to a trap to value it to Rs 110 when a management game happened.
Am sure some  hated me for it when I talked about it constantly to warn at Rs 70 .
But I just did my duty.  Now it is Rs 43.


All I can say is , if  COCR is still valued at Rs 43 right now ( after falling from Rs 70s)
how much is CFIN, LFIN, CDB, VFIN valued at?




 I just gave a start here only. There are several other good  companies trading low at CSe.


Some  Banks, Insurance companies , Diversified are a few.
( Btw  In Insurance CINS is one)

Construction boom is not over. It just that Government  killed its momentum
over certain policy decisions ( which I cannot really blame them after looking at why they did it)

Some bad management too is happening  with some companies killing its earnings.


Almost in every sectors there is key share that is strong.
Have speculatives and trading shares. But make you have the gems for the sustainable longer run that  maybe  feed you and your kid in times of need




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Word on Sri Lankan Political Situation.




So is President MS is totally useless ( am asking without political bias)? Hasn't he done
anything useful? Does he have good intentions ?

Is PM Ranil useless. He however did tarnish his image over how he handled the Bond scam
which I blatantly talked about when it happened in this forum.

Is past president MR again the so called next hope and the revived King after the recent elections !


Let me put in an nutshell.
Yes  majority of Sri Lankans do have lot of weaknesses including blindly electing
wrong people to wrong posts.

But  this election result showed something differenet in my eyes.


1) It did not say MS and Ranil is totally useless.
2) It did not say MR did not make mistakes before and is the new hope and King.

But it said ... we are not stupid as before. If MS and Ranil cannot pull their socks up
to keep promises this is a wake up call that we will voted you out . Re shuffling ministers
will just not cut it boys !  

Though  majority of Lankans still may remain "brain washed".. slowly I see my countrymen are getting  slowly wiser about politics and electing right person to right positions.

Here is a though , it maybe time to import politicians as a paid position, who does not have connection, vested  interests , but do their darn job or else get fired. How is that for a thought!  







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Forethought



We all need to remember at some point ( maybe sooner than later) , we all Die.

We take nothing with us.
We only leave behind memories for others and any good we did!


Some will be remembered for days, some for months, and only a few for ever in hearts of
many . The duration depends on what we did and how behaved while alive .

There was a reason why  Elvis Presley will be always called the King.
It was not only for his talent.

Elvis was the King
Micheal Jackson was the Prince
Freddy Mercury was the Queen.
Mahatma was the Saint.

Why?

They all had something special in them beyond their talent.
For Elvis,  why he is the King for ever  goes far beyond musical talent .
If one studied what he did to be so popular one will know.

Not everyone will be popular with everyone.
Each human will all have likers and haters.

But there is one thing that will make us stands out.
Our behavior, intention and what we did  for what reason!


Blessings  to all !



Btw ,  I hear a person  who communicated with me on Facebook and also constantly highly praised me before,  surprisingly  wanted to  see me    "in Bed collecting Merits". Tsk Tsk.
Maybe it was a lapse.  I guess some of us do things without thinking too far. It okay my friend.   Be well.  Btw , thanks to all who stood up to voice their opinion  during the  fun event  
(  the post and all replies I believe  was deleted by the Admin  )

Something that always appealed to me is solitude ( when I can do so )  and being away
from the modernism and people .  Maybe I will get my wish sooner than later  

Welcome back.

I am very happy to see you back sls..

Warmely welcome captain !!!!

Welcome back slstock !!!!

Welcome back slstock ! good to see you !!

Congratulations!

SLS is back. Dullness of the forum will be over.

Thanks your comprehensive update on almost every thing.

May you be in Good Health & stronger than before.

Your coming back and revival of the CSE will not be a coincident I suppose.

PS: Thanks Nihal for giving me the good news while I was driving to Kandy amidst curfew.

Ethical Trader wrote:Congratulations!

SLS is back. Dullness of the forum will be over.

Thanks your comprehensive update on almost every thing.

May you be in Good Health & stronger than before.

Your coming back and revival of the CSE will not be a coincident I suppose.

PS: Thanks Nihal for giving me the good news while I was driving to Kandy amidst curfew.

Hi ET, r u in kandy? how is the situation now??

welcome Sir

Welcome back slstock...

Extremely happy to see you Sls.

So you write during summer only?

Many shops were closed even after the curfew was removed but people are quiet now. Muslim religious places are adequately guarded. Saw people are busy buying their requirements from groceries opened. Foreigners are also moving freely.

CK wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:Congratulations!

SLS is back. Dullness of the forum will be over.

Thanks your comprehensive update on almost every thing.

May you be in Good Health & stronger than before.

Your coming back and revival of the CSE will not be a coincident I suppose.

PS: Thanks Nihal for giving me the good news while I was driving to Kandy amidst curfew.

Hi ET, r u in kandy? how is the situation now??

SLS, SFIN was one of my favorite shares once but disposed them long ago. Yes, now its good to enter at these levels.

CFIN was the other share I respected and hold some at present. It has potential to improve price wise but I heard some one writing (in this forum) of an investor(local) keeping its price low intentionally. What are they gaining by doing this. I am confused. Is this manipulation?

Have no idea/experience of the other shares you mentioned but its very useful to have such info readily available from you free.

Thanks for the valuable information but now a days I am keeping my funds reserved for the SAMP rights issue. As I never buy shares on credit that option is not under my strategy.

SFIN below 16 is unbelievably attractive.expecting bigger dividend this year.

Sir, Foreign activities in cse is fading day by day, especially in these days. buying getting slow. Is that the political uncertainty the only reason ? After all, Will there be a new tax structure with effect from April 1st?Again CGT fear?

Valid points bro. Locals seem to be more sensitive to current issues than the foreigners these days.

spw19721 wrote: SFIN  below 16  is unbelievably attractive.expecting bigger dividend this year.

Sir, Foreign activities in cse is fading day by day, especially in these days. buying getting slow. Is that the political uncertainty  the only reason ? After all, Will there be a new tax structure with effect from April 1st?Again CGT fear?

Slstock, then what happen to CIND. It's not in your list.  Why ?

Ethical Trader wrote:Many shops were closed even after the curfew was removed but people are quiet now. Muslim religious places are adequately guarded.  Saw people are busy buying their requirements from groceries opened. Foreigners are also moving freely.

CK wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:Congratulations!

SLS is back. Dullness of the forum will be over.

Thanks your comprehensive update on almost every thing.

May you be in Good Health & stronger than before.

Your coming back and revival of the CSE will not be a coincident I suppose.

PS: Thanks Nihal for giving me the good news while I was driving to Kandy amidst curfew.

Hi ET, r u in kandy? how is the situation now??

Thanks ET for the information ..

nihal123 wrote:Slstock, then what happen to CIND. It's not in your list.  Why ?

:study:i

Is it in bank and finance sector ?

Very good news. we're delighted to welcome you back to the Forum, dear Slstock.

CSE is green for two consecutive days after SLS appears. ?Is that a coincident. Ha Ha!!!

Welcome back Sir..

1) Thank you all for your comments


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2) Can I ask ( hoping to get a reply), how many actually read the whole article ? It took me nearly 2.30-3 hours  to write, edit and post.


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3)  Did you note the below statement in the article ?

"How many of you figure how many world markets ( in Asia including ) gained 20-30% last year while CSE was dead ! HOW SAD !

So who can revive CSE?  Suddas? Government? Us?

Answer is,  if all concerned parties get together ,  including the government, CSE can be revived easily. Some neglected shares easily needs 50-80% share runs from now  to update their value! For the patient it is a selected gold mine !"  




I repeat,  at CSE , some shares are so beaten down and undervalued by any world standard, that they need 50% or more share price updates. Market was dead for the last 3 years and share prices only went down ( except for the manipulated or seasonal) .



4) Did anyone notice , within next 2 market days after writing  this post

a) CSE was Green with decent volume
b) 2 shares in the finance sector list I gave above declared over 5% interim dividends?

namely VFIN Rs 3.5
          ALLI Rs 4


c)
Now here is a task .. out of the Finco shares  mentioned
which one do you think is severely undervalued ( I mean still trading atleast 40-50% below to real value based on fundamentals)  ?



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5) I was not writing on forum/Facebook for several reasons.
Amongst them

i) for health reasons (  If am dead I can't  write  )
ii) writing didn't bring me any purpose

I mentioned many times why I wrote for the last 7 years.
It was for a goal to uplift the shareholders and then  hoping we can make CSE/Sri Lanka respectively more sustainable and a better place to live.

You see when a person is hungry it useless talking about ethics ,  or how to build a country. The immediate need is to get fed short term. They wouldn't care for Bana will they  ?

Likewise ,  at these cyberspace places, we tried to help people with knowledge we learnt the hardway ( when we had  no forums or genuine people to learn from)   so they can find a method that is long term sustainable and doesn't lose sleep doing it. After they do so , they can  spread the word and join hands to make Sri Lanka get out of the sheer abusive state it is in  ( do I need to explain what am talking about ? It IS NOT THE PARADISE COUNTRY CALLED SRI LANKAN AM TALKING ABOUT , BUT THE SHORT SIGHTED BAD ATTITUDE PEOPLE WHO MAKE EVERYONE ELSES LIFE DIFFICULT LIVING IN IT)

After nearly 7 years stubbornly not giving up, I finally realized this is an uphill struggle with minimal support  from  even the wanting who chose to stay silent ( maybe the majority is so but they still stay  silent) but will get headches and opposition from the voiceferous  few even if I/we speak the god known truth ( in most cases) for betterment of everyone.

How many shares I/we warned about , the predictions came true. Does anyone care to analyze even ? ( I hope you don't ask me to name them as I can but don't want to )



6)

Yes my number 5 point was the longest. Why?

My  heart aches for this PARADISE  and the innocent people who are sadly victimized with no visible foreseeable solution due to bad attitudes, and bad behaviour of a lesser crowd.  Isn't it a irony or a socially allowable/repeatable phenomenon to see Politicos and their wives  ( who are supposed to set examples for people) to  wield Guns  and kicking people in public ?  Ofcourse in decent country there is the law enforcement.  But hey wait .. do we trust them even ?

So question is then whom do we trust ?
Whom can we trust ?

SO WHERE IS THE PROBLEM?


7) Lastly.. as far as undervalued share are concerned.. it cannot be suppressed for ever.

There WILL BE SUNSHINE AFTER A STORM.


Nihal CIND is not in the finance sector. If read the post , I mentioned about the construction sector too. ( Btw , I still hold CIND even though performance was down  )



ET,

More than CFIN ... I see better dividends and prospects with LFIN.


Good luck all.

Another thought-provoking post.
Yes, I read the entire post.
Congratulation for 5K mark.

sls is it you in the avatar? it is a new pic in the upper left.
thanks for the valuable post.