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SHARK a.k.a TAH
44 posters
Harmonic Price Patterns
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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First Guy- Posts : 2599
Join date : 2014-02-22
Good morning TAH! Isn't it wonderful to see you here! 
Welcome!!
Welcome!!
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Thanks FG...... I am happy to be here.....but my name has been taken .....duk seen so used traderathome 
all my previous posting in vain with that SLEF.
all my previous posting in vain with that SLEF.
Admin- Admin
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An exclusive section to welcome TAH. Please see PM regarding the username
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Thanks Guys .....you guys are amazing......for putting up so fast a forum for the much needed srilanka equity community. good luck and I will be here as before contributing in small way....and a big thank you for all the people behind this new site....
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Here is my first chart..... on S&PSL20...
Please feel free to ask any questions in this thread....
Please feel free to ask any questions in this thread....
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
https://i.servimg.com/u/f56/17/34/66/89/spsl2016.png
sashimaal- Top contributor
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Great to see TAH here 
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Join date : 2014-03-01
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Thanks sashi......people like you make me more stronger everbefore to contribute in small way we can....
Thanks once again....
TAH
Thanks once again....
TAH
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
In this lesson, we'll be looking at harmonic price patterns. These bad boys may be a little harder to grasp but once you spot these setups, it can lead to some very nice profits!
The whole idea of these patterns is that they help people spot possible retracements of recent trends. In fact, we'll make use of other tools we've already covered - the Fibonacci retracement and extensions!
Combining these wonderful tools to spot these harmonic patterns, we'll be able to distinguish possible areas for a continuation of the overall trend.
In this lesson, we're going to discuss the following Harmonic Price Patterns:
ABCD Pattern
Three-Drive Pattern
Gartley Pattern
Crab Pattern
Bat Pattern
Butterfly Pattern
Phew! That's quite a lot to cover!
But don't you worry... Once you get the hang of things, it'll be as easy as 1-2-3! We'll start off with the more basic ABCD and three-drive patterns before moving on to Gartley and the animals.
After learning about them, we'll take a look at the tools you need in order to trade these patterns successfully.
For all these harmonic patterns, the point is to wait for the entire pattern to complete before taking any short or long trades. You'll see what we're talking about later on so let's get started!
source:baby pips Very Happy
.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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The ABCD and the Three-Drive
The ABCD
Let's start this lesson with the simplest harmonic pattern, and what could be more basic than your good ole ABC's? We'll just pop in another letter right there (because we're cool like that) and we've got the ABCD chart pattern!
To spot this chart pattern, all you need are ultra-sharp hawk eyes and the handy-dandy Fibonacci tool.
For both the bullish and bearish versions of the ABCD chart pattern, the lines AB and CD are known as the legs while BC is called the correction or retracement. If you use the Fibonacci retracement tool on leg AB, the retracement BC should reach until the 0.618 level. Then, the line CD should be the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of BC.
Simple, right? All you have to do is wait for the entire pattern to complete (reach point D) before taking any short or long positions.
Oh, but if you want to be extra strict about it, here are a couple more rules for a valid ABCD pattern:
The length of line AB should be equal to the length of line CD.
The time it takes for the price to go from A to B should be equal to the time it takes for the price to move from C to D.
The ABCD
Let's start this lesson with the simplest harmonic pattern, and what could be more basic than your good ole ABC's? We'll just pop in another letter right there (because we're cool like that) and we've got the ABCD chart pattern!
To spot this chart pattern, all you need are ultra-sharp hawk eyes and the handy-dandy Fibonacci tool.
For both the bullish and bearish versions of the ABCD chart pattern, the lines AB and CD are known as the legs while BC is called the correction or retracement. If you use the Fibonacci retracement tool on leg AB, the retracement BC should reach until the 0.618 level. Then, the line CD should be the 1.272 Fibonacci extension of BC.
Simple, right? All you have to do is wait for the entire pattern to complete (reach point D) before taking any short or long positions.
Oh, but if you want to be extra strict about it, here are a couple more rules for a valid ABCD pattern:
The length of line AB should be equal to the length of line CD.
The time it takes for the price to go from A to B should be equal to the time it takes for the price to move from C to D.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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Three-Drive
The three-drive pattern is a lot like the ABCD pattern except that it has three legs (now known as drives) and two corrections or retracements. Easy as pie! In fact, this three-drive pattern is the ancestor of the Elliott Wave pattern.
As usual, you'll need your hawk eyes, the Fibonacci tool, and a smidge of patience on this one.
As you can see from the charts above, point A should be the 61.8% retracement of drive 1. Similarly, point B should be the 0.618 retracement of drive 2. Then, drive 2 should be the 1.272 extension of correction A and drive 3 should be the 1.272 extension of correction B.
By the time the whole three-drive pattern is complete, that's when you can pull the trigger on your long or short trade. Typically, when the price reaches point B, you can already set your short or long orders at the 1.272 extension so that you won't miss out!
But first, it'd be better to check if these rules also hold true:
The time it takes the price to complete drive 2 should be equal to the time it takes to complete drive 3.
Also, the time to complete retracements A and B should be equal.
The three-drive pattern is a lot like the ABCD pattern except that it has three legs (now known as drives) and two corrections or retracements. Easy as pie! In fact, this three-drive pattern is the ancestor of the Elliott Wave pattern.
As usual, you'll need your hawk eyes, the Fibonacci tool, and a smidge of patience on this one.
As you can see from the charts above, point A should be the 61.8% retracement of drive 1. Similarly, point B should be the 0.618 retracement of drive 2. Then, drive 2 should be the 1.272 extension of correction A and drive 3 should be the 1.272 extension of correction B.
By the time the whole three-drive pattern is complete, that's when you can pull the trigger on your long or short trade. Typically, when the price reaches point B, you can already set your short or long orders at the 1.272 extension so that you won't miss out!
But first, it'd be better to check if these rules also hold true:
The time it takes the price to complete drive 2 should be equal to the time it takes to complete drive 3.
Also, the time to complete retracements A and B should be equal.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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The Gartley and the Animals
Once upon a time, there was this insanely smart trader dude named Harold McKinley Gartley.
He had a stock market advisory service in the mid-1930s with a huge following. This service was one of the first to apply scientific and statistical methods to analyze the stock market behavior.
According to Gartley, he was finally able to solve two of the biggest problems of traders: what and when to buy.
Soon enough, traders realized that these patterns could also be applied to other markets. Since then, various books, trading software, and other patterns (discussed below) have been made based on the Gartleys.
Gartley a.k.a. "222" Pattern
The Gartley "222" pattern is named for the page number it is found on in H.M. Gartleys book, Profits in the Stock Market. Gartleys are patterns that include the basic ABCD pattern we've already talked about, but are preceded by a significant high or low.
Now, these patterns normally form when a correction of the overall trend is taking place and look like 'M' (or 'W' for bearish patterns). These patterns are used to help traders find good entry points to jump in on the overall trend.
A Gartley forms when the price action has been going on a recent uptrend (or downtrend) but has started to show signs of a correction.
What makes the Gartley such a nice setup when it forms is the reversal points are a Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension level. This gives a stronger indication that the pair may actually reverse.
This pattern can be hard to spot and once you do, it can get confusing when you pop up all those Fibonacci tools. The key to avoiding all the confusion is to take things one step at a time.
In any case, the pattern contains a bullish or bearish ABCD pattern, but is preceded by a point (X) that is beyond point D. The "perfect" Gartley pattern has the following characteristics:
Move AB should be the .618 retracement of move XA.
Move BC should be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.272 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 1.618 of move BC.
Move CD should be .786 retracement of move XA
Once upon a time, there was this insanely smart trader dude named Harold McKinley Gartley.
He had a stock market advisory service in the mid-1930s with a huge following. This service was one of the first to apply scientific and statistical methods to analyze the stock market behavior.
According to Gartley, he was finally able to solve two of the biggest problems of traders: what and when to buy.
Soon enough, traders realized that these patterns could also be applied to other markets. Since then, various books, trading software, and other patterns (discussed below) have been made based on the Gartleys.
Gartley a.k.a. "222" Pattern
The Gartley "222" pattern is named for the page number it is found on in H.M. Gartleys book, Profits in the Stock Market. Gartleys are patterns that include the basic ABCD pattern we've already talked about, but are preceded by a significant high or low.
Now, these patterns normally form when a correction of the overall trend is taking place and look like 'M' (or 'W' for bearish patterns). These patterns are used to help traders find good entry points to jump in on the overall trend.
A Gartley forms when the price action has been going on a recent uptrend (or downtrend) but has started to show signs of a correction.
What makes the Gartley such a nice setup when it forms is the reversal points are a Fibonacci retracement and Fibonacci extension level. This gives a stronger indication that the pair may actually reverse.
This pattern can be hard to spot and once you do, it can get confusing when you pop up all those Fibonacci tools. The key to avoiding all the confusion is to take things one step at a time.
In any case, the pattern contains a bullish or bearish ABCD pattern, but is preceded by a point (X) that is beyond point D. The "perfect" Gartley pattern has the following characteristics:
Move AB should be the .618 retracement of move XA.
Move BC should be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.272 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 1.618 of move BC.
Move CD should be .786 retracement of move XA
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
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The Animals
As time went by, the popularity of the Gartley pattern grew and people eventually came up with their own variations.
For some odd reason, the discoverers of these variations decided to name them after animals (Maybe they were part of PETA?).Without further ado, here comes the animal pack...
The Crab
In 2000, Scott Carney, a firm believer in harmonic price patterns, discovered the "Crab".
According to him, this is the most accurate among all the harmonic patterns because of how extreme the Potential Reversal Zone (sometimes called "price better reverse or imma gonna lose my shirt" point) from move XA.
This pattern has a high reward-to-risk ratio because you can put a very tight stop loss. The "perfect" crab pattern must have the following aspects:
Move AB should be the .382 or .618 retracement of move XA.
Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 2.24 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should be 3.618 extension of move BC.
CD should be 1.618 extension of move XA.
As time went by, the popularity of the Gartley pattern grew and people eventually came up with their own variations.
For some odd reason, the discoverers of these variations decided to name them after animals (Maybe they were part of PETA?).Without further ado, here comes the animal pack...
The Crab
In 2000, Scott Carney, a firm believer in harmonic price patterns, discovered the "Crab".
According to him, this is the most accurate among all the harmonic patterns because of how extreme the Potential Reversal Zone (sometimes called "price better reverse or imma gonna lose my shirt" point) from move XA.
This pattern has a high reward-to-risk ratio because you can put a very tight stop loss. The "perfect" crab pattern must have the following aspects:
Move AB should be the .382 or .618 retracement of move XA.
Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 2.24 of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should be 3.618 extension of move BC.
CD should be 1.618 extension of move XA.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
The Butterfly
Then, there is the Butterfly pattern. Like Muhammad Ali, if you spot this setup, you'll surely be swinging for some knockout-sized pips!
Created by Bryce Gilmore, the perfect Butterfly pattern is defined by the .786 retracement of move AB with respect to move XA. The Butterfly contains these specific characteristics:
Move AB should be the .786 retracement of move XA.
Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.618 extension of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 2.618 of move BC.
CD should be 1.27 or 1.618 extension of move XA.
Then, there is the Butterfly pattern. Like Muhammad Ali, if you spot this setup, you'll surely be swinging for some knockout-sized pips!
Created by Bryce Gilmore, the perfect Butterfly pattern is defined by the .786 retracement of move AB with respect to move XA. The Butterfly contains these specific characteristics:
Move AB should be the .786 retracement of move XA.
Move BC can be either .382 or .886 retracement of move AB.
If the retracement of move BC is .382 of move AB, then CD should be 1.618 extension of move BC. Consquently, if move BC is .886 of move AB, then CD should extend 2.618 of move BC.
CD should be 1.27 or 1.618 extension of move XA.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Top Tip #1 Dont get over-emotional about your shares
Shares are an investment a financial investment. But for many people they become an emotional investment too. That can be dangerous. Dont allow yourself to get so attached to your shares that you ignore all the signs telling you it is time to sell them.
If you have lost money because a share price has gone down it can be very hard to let go. It is only human nature to hold on grimly in the hope that the share price will go back up. Unfortunately what goes down must come back up is not a stock market rule.
Remember investing is about maximising your financial return. It is not about emotion. Most of us have only a limited amount of funds to invest so we need to use this money to its best effect. If you spot a share with better prospects than one you already hold you should consider switching your investment remembering to bear in mind the costs involved stamp duty dealing any potential Capital Gains Tax liability.
Allocating your resources correctly is what is important. Holding a share stops you using that money elsewhere so make sure youre investing for the right reasons.
Shares are an investment a financial investment. But for many people they become an emotional investment too. That can be dangerous. Dont allow yourself to get so attached to your shares that you ignore all the signs telling you it is time to sell them.
If you have lost money because a share price has gone down it can be very hard to let go. It is only human nature to hold on grimly in the hope that the share price will go back up. Unfortunately what goes down must come back up is not a stock market rule.
Remember investing is about maximising your financial return. It is not about emotion. Most of us have only a limited amount of funds to invest so we need to use this money to its best effect. If you spot a share with better prospects than one you already hold you should consider switching your investment remembering to bear in mind the costs involved stamp duty dealing any potential Capital Gains Tax liability.
Allocating your resources correctly is what is important. Holding a share stops you using that money elsewhere so make sure youre investing for the right reasons.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
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Top Tip #2 Know when to take your profit
The best way of knowing when it is time to sell a share is to set a target profit level for yourself at the time at which you buy the share. Then assuming the price rises when the share hits your target level sell and take your profit. Remember a profit isnt a profit until youve sold the share. A paper profit will buy you nothing.
If the share price is rising it is easy to think that it will continue to do so. Theres an old stock market saying - Always leave something for the next man. Remember if youre selling somebody else has to be a willing buyer. Once you have sold be happy that you have made your profit.
Of course you dont have to sell when a share reaches your target level but if it does you should take a fresh look at the shares and consider your options. You could sell and take the profit or you could top slice your investment sell enough shares to get back your capital and perhaps some of your profit leaving part of your holding in place.
Top slicing means that if the shares fall you have protected your capital and taken a gain. If the shares continue to rise you still have some exposure and will make further profits.
Use limit orders and alerts on your
The best way of knowing when it is time to sell a share is to set a target profit level for yourself at the time at which you buy the share. Then assuming the price rises when the share hits your target level sell and take your profit. Remember a profit isnt a profit until youve sold the share. A paper profit will buy you nothing.
If the share price is rising it is easy to think that it will continue to do so. Theres an old stock market saying - Always leave something for the next man. Remember if youre selling somebody else has to be a willing buyer. Once you have sold be happy that you have made your profit.
Of course you dont have to sell when a share reaches your target level but if it does you should take a fresh look at the shares and consider your options. You could sell and take the profit or you could top slice your investment sell enough shares to get back your capital and perhaps some of your profit leaving part of your holding in place.
Top slicing means that if the shares fall you have protected your capital and taken a gain. If the shares continue to rise you still have some exposure and will make further profits.
Use limit orders and alerts on your
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Top Tip #3 A share can be a dog but its not for life
In stock market parlance a dog is an investment that produces a low return or a loss. If youve any long term experience of the stock market you may well have owned shares that could quite easily have howled at the moon! It is a fact of life.
But unlike dogs shares are not for life. Long-term investing known as buy and hold may not work as well now as it did in the past as a stock market strategy. Competition in many industry sectors is much greater than it was and some companies adapt better than others. Just because a company was a
Many people now buy shares in the company they work for through Sharesave Plans. This can be a tax-efficient and cost-effective way of building up a share-holding. However that doesnt mean you should hang on to the shares forever. Youre already exposed to the company because you work for it. Investing in it increases your exposure. What if the company runs into problems - its share price could fall and you could be made redundant thus facing a double whammy of losses on your investment and loss of your income.
Dont become attached to a share weve said that already. Maybe you inherited the holding maybe its the first share you ever bought. None of that matters. Whatever your reason for holding the share in the first place you need to be clinical when it comes to selling. If the share is not doing what it should for you and is not likely to in terms of income generation or capital growth then you should sell.
Shares are not to be parked under the bed and forgotten about. You may check your share prices regularly perhaps even daily but do you actually review your holdings to see if your investment strategy still makes sense. If it does fine; if it doesnt sell! Take a cold hard look at your portfolio at least every two-three months.
In stock market parlance a dog is an investment that produces a low return or a loss. If youve any long term experience of the stock market you may well have owned shares that could quite easily have howled at the moon! It is a fact of life.
But unlike dogs shares are not for life. Long-term investing known as buy and hold may not work as well now as it did in the past as a stock market strategy. Competition in many industry sectors is much greater than it was and some companies adapt better than others. Just because a company was a
Many people now buy shares in the company they work for through Sharesave Plans. This can be a tax-efficient and cost-effective way of building up a share-holding. However that doesnt mean you should hang on to the shares forever. Youre already exposed to the company because you work for it. Investing in it increases your exposure. What if the company runs into problems - its share price could fall and you could be made redundant thus facing a double whammy of losses on your investment and loss of your income.
Dont become attached to a share weve said that already. Maybe you inherited the holding maybe its the first share you ever bought. None of that matters. Whatever your reason for holding the share in the first place you need to be clinical when it comes to selling. If the share is not doing what it should for you and is not likely to in terms of income generation or capital growth then you should sell.
Shares are not to be parked under the bed and forgotten about. You may check your share prices regularly perhaps even daily but do you actually review your holdings to see if your investment strategy still makes sense. If it does fine; if it doesnt sell! Take a cold hard look at your portfolio at least every two-three months.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Although i dont agree with below RULE, some will counter argue, so i like keep silent on this one Basketball
Top Tip #4 Know when to cut your losses
No-one likes to lose and especially no-one likes to lose money. However it is better to take a small loss rather than a large loss. When you buy a share as well as setting a target profit level you should set a target loss level. Making that decision at the outset can save you a lot of agonising later on.
Of course as with profit targets you dont have to sell. But if your share reaches its loss level then you need to look very hard at the prospects for the company concerned and for its share price to have a good reason to hang on.
Biting the bullet and taking the loss if thats what you decide to do means you can use your remaining capital to find a new and better we hope investment.
Top Tip #4 Know when to cut your losses
No-one likes to lose and especially no-one likes to lose money. However it is better to take a small loss rather than a large loss. When you buy a share as well as setting a target profit level you should set a target loss level. Making that decision at the outset can save you a lot of agonising later on.
Of course as with profit targets you dont have to sell. But if your share reaches its loss level then you need to look very hard at the prospects for the company concerned and for its share price to have a good reason to hang on.
Biting the bullet and taking the loss if thats what you decide to do means you can use your remaining capital to find a new and better we hope investment.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Top Tip #5 Keep an eye on Directors dealings
Watching the directors was not a song by Elvis Costello but its definitely something you should be doing. You may think that if a director sells then there is something wrong with the company. That may be the case but not always. There can be a variety of reasons for directors to sell often wholly unrelated to the performance of the business.
Do bear in that in many cases the directors may well be under certain restrictions when it comes to share dealing and may often only sell certain amounts at certain times of the year. If the share price has had a good run a director will take advantage of this just like any other investor and sell simply to lock in a bit of profit. School fees may loom large as a driver for share sales.
Divorce has also been a key factor in 2004 Stephen Marks founder of French Connection and David Harding chief executive of William Hill both sold large holdings in their respective companies to fund settlements. The following year Mark Dixon of Regus Group and Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP found themselves in similar situations.
However take note if several directors are selling. You need to understand the reason why and take your decision then. Check how the company is performing and look for evidence that would provide a reason for the sales. It could well be time to follow suit.
Watching the directors was not a song by Elvis Costello but its definitely something you should be doing. You may think that if a director sells then there is something wrong with the company. That may be the case but not always. There can be a variety of reasons for directors to sell often wholly unrelated to the performance of the business.
Do bear in that in many cases the directors may well be under certain restrictions when it comes to share dealing and may often only sell certain amounts at certain times of the year. If the share price has had a good run a director will take advantage of this just like any other investor and sell simply to lock in a bit of profit. School fees may loom large as a driver for share sales.
Divorce has also been a key factor in 2004 Stephen Marks founder of French Connection and David Harding chief executive of William Hill both sold large holdings in their respective companies to fund settlements. The following year Mark Dixon of Regus Group and Sir Martin Sorrell of WPP found themselves in similar situations.
However take note if several directors are selling. You need to understand the reason why and take your decision then. Check how the company is performing and look for evidence that would provide a reason for the sales. It could well be time to follow suit.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Top Tip #6 Dont jump too soon
There are times when shares just dont move much - even when the rest of the market is roaring collapsing around them. Even shares that have been tipped as strong buying opportunities may not move much - the tip may be based on an event say the launch of a new product that is some way off. The stock market may not react until the product is out in the market and selling well.
Review your share holdings regularly. As long the fundamental reason for making the investment in the first place holds true then you may reasonably still hold the share.
Do keep an eye on the news not just the financial news. Some stories will have a more obvious impact than others. But keep in mind also that the stock market may already have taken the news into account by reacting to rumour ahead of confirmation and pricing shares accordingly.
Consider how news and events can affect the value of your shares - a profits warning will most likely send the share price lower but would a profits warning from a competitor do so Maybe - it could be a sign the sector as a whole is in trouble or it could be a sign that the company you have invested in is beating its competitors.
Other news items should also give you pause for thought. A change in interest rates will affect banking shares but may also have knock-on effects to house building retailers and travel businesses depending upon consumer reaction to the news.
There are times when shares just dont move much - even when the rest of the market is roaring collapsing around them. Even shares that have been tipped as strong buying opportunities may not move much - the tip may be based on an event say the launch of a new product that is some way off. The stock market may not react until the product is out in the market and selling well.
Review your share holdings regularly. As long the fundamental reason for making the investment in the first place holds true then you may reasonably still hold the share.
Do keep an eye on the news not just the financial news. Some stories will have a more obvious impact than others. But keep in mind also that the stock market may already have taken the news into account by reacting to rumour ahead of confirmation and pricing shares accordingly.
Consider how news and events can affect the value of your shares - a profits warning will most likely send the share price lower but would a profits warning from a competitor do so Maybe - it could be a sign the sector as a whole is in trouble or it could be a sign that the company you have invested in is beating its competitors.
Other news items should also give you pause for thought. A change in interest rates will affect banking shares but may also have knock-on effects to house building retailers and travel businesses depending upon consumer reaction to the news.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Top Tip #7 Be aware beware of trends and tips
Past performance is not a guide to future performance or a trend is a trend until it isnt a trend and then its a new trend! You should treat trend analysis with caution. Be aware of trends but also beware of them.
Chartists use complex share price charts to attempt to discern the future movement of share prices from the shapes created by the charts. Theyll tell you that everything you need to know about where a share is going next can be found from the trend it has been following. A highly profitable niche industry produces a plethora of books and online and offline newsletters dedicated to Chartism.
The easiest trend to spot is where a share price moves in a certain range - never falling below a particular point and never rising above another. If the price moves out of this range either above or below it that is a good time to take a closer look at your investment and consider selling. Other trends are worth considering including seasonal consumer trends and technological change.
Trends are of course open to interpretation. So is news. As Humpty Dumpty put it in Through the Looking Glass "When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less." Make sure you know the difference between fact and interpretation.
Also be wary of newspaper share tips. By the time you read them the news will already be in the share price although that doesnt mean you shouldnt follow up the idea with your own investigation.
Dont be over emotional about your shares - this is where we started and its also where we finish. If all the signs are pointing to the fact that you should sell but you still like the company dont forget you can always buy back into it later. Sell now and you could take a profit or cut a loss and buy back in at a lower price later.
If you like the company for all the right reasons the share price could well turn upwards again. Use your
Please remember that past performance is no guide to the future and that the value of shares and the level of income they provide can fall as well as rise.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance or a trend is a trend until it isnt a trend and then its a new trend! You should treat trend analysis with caution. Be aware of trends but also beware of them.
Chartists use complex share price charts to attempt to discern the future movement of share prices from the shapes created by the charts. Theyll tell you that everything you need to know about where a share is going next can be found from the trend it has been following. A highly profitable niche industry produces a plethora of books and online and offline newsletters dedicated to Chartism.
The easiest trend to spot is where a share price moves in a certain range - never falling below a particular point and never rising above another. If the price moves out of this range either above or below it that is a good time to take a closer look at your investment and consider selling. Other trends are worth considering including seasonal consumer trends and technological change.
Trends are of course open to interpretation. So is news. As Humpty Dumpty put it in Through the Looking Glass "When I use a word it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less." Make sure you know the difference between fact and interpretation.
Also be wary of newspaper share tips. By the time you read them the news will already be in the share price although that doesnt mean you shouldnt follow up the idea with your own investigation.
Dont be over emotional about your shares - this is where we started and its also where we finish. If all the signs are pointing to the fact that you should sell but you still like the company dont forget you can always buy back into it later. Sell now and you could take a profit or cut a loss and buy back in at a lower price later.
If you like the company for all the right reasons the share price could well turn upwards again. Use your
Please remember that past performance is no guide to the future and that the value of shares and the level of income they provide can fall as well as rise.
Ethical Trader- Top contributor
- Posts : 5568
Join date : 2014-02-28
Wow welcome back TAH. You are great man. Continue the good work.
SHARK a.k.a TAH- Top contributor
- Posts : 338
Join date : 2014-03-01
Location : Abu Dhabi, UAE
Thanks ET..... 
We need to get our old members back here....
The changes in SLEF was fast and I did not like it.....
We need to get our old members back here....
The changes in SLEF was fast and I did not like it.....
Jana- Posts : 50
Join date : 2014-02-23
TAH wrote:Here is my first chart..... on S&PSL20...
Please feel free to ask any questions in this thread....
Thanks TAH!
Nice explanation about all type of chart..
and are you telling according your chart , S&PSL20 in selling signal ???
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