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The Investor Sentiment - Equity and investments forum for Sri Lankans

The Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSEThe Lankan Investor Forum - A more respectable and reasonable place for members to discuss matters regarding the CSE

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+22
Topcat
sanjulanka
lanka
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nihal123
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First Guy
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yellow knife
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    Trading Journal

    xmart
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    • Post n°1

    Trading Journal Empty Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:35 pm

    Hello Tech Pals,

    Some times back NC started a trading journal for himself. I found the practice useful to identify tech setups, performance and personalities of stocks with ASI. therefore, i am initiating this thread to discuss tech prospective of any share (better to mention whether its backed up by fundamentals)

    I am not a guru but a curios soul trying to find out waves and rhythm of the market. no one should take any particular set up of trend as a buy/ sell recommendations. be kind enough to do your own studies before execute any order.

    good luck all
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    • Post n°2

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Wed Jun 22, 2016 8:53 pm

    JKH.N0000

    Trading Journal Jkh10

    After bottomed out at 140 JKH is making a higher low. 10 MA cross above 20 MA while MACD give bullish crossover. JKH is being accumulated though the price remained unchanged.

    3 major Elliot waves were finished. are we looking at new wave forming or a retraccement?

    anyway, my reading says JKH should reach 185 before forming a new trend either down or up.

    any thoughts?
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    • Post n°3

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Yin-Yang Wed Jun 22, 2016 10:50 pm

    My gut feelings says...
    buy at 150 and sell at 165 and be satisfied with it.

    දැනට වේලිච්ච කොටි මස් කාපල්ලා. නරියා අමු මස් ගෙනෙයි.
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    • Post n°4

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by pathfinder Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:45 pm

    X-mart JKH still hasn't form a bottom,so taking it as higher low is not acceptable,Anyway it's being collected.
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    • Post n°5

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:26 pm

    Path, Agree on that higher low. still the leg has not fully formed. together with rest of indicators i made a bold judgment.

    as YY said, i do hope 150 would hold (for everyone's sake) if bounced at 150 then immediate resistance will be at 160-165. in that sense YY correct as per the prevailing market condition much cannot be expected.

    since i have used 1 week chart here and major 5 waves were finished there should be a correction. it can either be flat, zig zag or upward. if downtrend to presume ASI should break 6000 mark again (which is not a good sign).

    thanks guys!
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    • Post n°6

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by slstock Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:06 am

    Good initiative.

    I think,

    best to wait till the jkh split is done so you can revisit the trend.
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    • Post n°7

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:13 am

    thanks all. lets look at ASI daily

    Trading Journal Captur11

    at 6380- 6400 we are facing a down trend line resistance. this is a crucial hour to decide the direction of the ASI in coming days.

    if we break 6300 again, it will violate the medium term up trend line. still 6250 would give a strong support. 6250 to 6450 there would be ranging action as per my reading. again i may be wrong!

    technically breaking above 6440 would give a sign of a new up trend.
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    • Post n°8

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by CK Mon Jul 11, 2016 11:47 am

    Thanks xmart. please keep updating this link.
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    • Post n°9

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Backstage Mon Jul 11, 2016 12:30 pm

    CK wrote:Thanks xmart. please keep updating this link.

    yes yes yes...
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    • Post n°10

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Axe Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:51 pm

    Hi Xmart, Thanks for the previous updates..

    Now that ASI is above 6400 what is you expectation of its value in the coming weeks?
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    • Post n°11

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Yin-Yang Thu Jul 14, 2016 5:04 pm

    On a serious note:
    This thread appears to be getting better.

    Just sharing my random feeling on market's mentality.

    Referring to xm's picture,
    I feel, if this is going to be an uptrend in medium scale, the rise should be much steeper than the drawn line. I would say, if this is going to be an uptrend we should witness ASI near 6800 within this month.

    Otherwise, market will range at least for another 3 more months.

    A slower rise will never make it above 6800.


    As said somewhere else;

    To pull out a deep shit stuck elephant, we need an equal or a bigger jumbo.
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    • Post n°12

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:53 pm

    thanks all,

    ASI is hovering around 6400-6420. breaking above 6440 with a volume support may fuel next big move up. but upward momentum is getting reduced it seems. ASI may consolidate just below 6400 and break above or retreat to 6300 max and will test the resistance at 6440-6450.

    will see the chart at end of july. good luck all!
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    • Post n°13

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Mon Aug 01, 2016 10:22 pm

    hi all, its 1st of Aug and lets look at the chart

    Trading Journal Captur12

    the good news is ASI breaks the short term resistance trendline and ranging between 6380-6420. looking at the volume this is a healthy consolidation to the next level. the next resistance level would be near term high 6680-6700. which is 50% fib of the great fall. therefore, this resistance would be hard to break.

    anyway, if ASI to stay in positive territory it should break the rectangle and move up. there are few options at that stage

    option 1: follow by the rectangular consolidation (which is a reliable continuation pattern) ASI should go up. 6500 would be a challenge but there should not be much resistance. (ref date by 20/8/2016)

    option 2: if PM gave a shock with his policy decisions market will react negatively and break the rectangle down, but panic selling would find buyers around 6350-6380 and start the journey to test 6680 level. (ref date by 27/8/2016)

    option 3: PM gave a big shot with unexpected capital gain, unfavorable economic policy, another world turmoil would bring ASI to 6250. which is unlikely but cannot rued out.

    therefore, shall we expect something exciting around end of august?

    good luck
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    • Post n°14

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by CK Tue Aug 02, 2016 6:06 am

    thanks X.
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    • Post n°15

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:18 pm

    so far so good. we got confirmed signals for option 01. are we looking at 6700 at end of the month? bounce
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    • Post n°16

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Axe Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:32 pm

    Guys I was looking at a few chart patterns lately and was keen on ACME chart formation.

    It looks like the weekly chart has broken a resistance of 7.70 with this week's trading with some considerable volume. It looks like an ascending triangle pattern. Just wanted to let you guys know. I am not good with charts so better to confirm yourselves..

    I cannot seem to put a picture up here but when I can I will, may be later tonight.
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    • Post n°17

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Axe Thu Aug 25, 2016 9:36 pm

    Here is my chart... Let me know if you agree..

    Trading Journal Acme_210
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    • Post n°18

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Thu Aug 25, 2016 10:56 pm

    axe,

    still the pattern is too early to be ascending triangle. this could take many forms. the good news is ACME had come out from MT resistance trend. making that "W" with a higher low after a downtrend is a good reversal point.

    there is a big resistance at 8.80-9.00 range. breaking above 8 will trigger the target of 8.80-9.00 range. furthermore, each stock has its unique way. if you carefully look at weekly candlestick chart you may see dojis at start and end point of each rally.

    CCI gave a buy signal at 7.60-7.80 level (22.08.2016) after 28.04.2014. which cannot be ignored very easily (for me)

    on financial note:
    this is still a loss making company. they went through a restructuring process, change management and reduced loss very well. if they produce a positive earning this will appreciate more. if they fail to return 'from loss making territory, then this technical rally might not sustained and may return to 6.5 level.

    good luck.

    P:S- i have collected this share from 6 to 6.60 averaging 6.20. my view might be bias but tried to give a balance view.
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    • Post n°19

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by Axe Thu Aug 25, 2016 11:42 pm

    Thanks xmart for your input...

    I assume you are referring to Commodity Channel Index, am I correct? One question there, so there seems to be a lot of indicators available for tech traders, how would you select the most suited one?

    Thanks for pointing out the doji patterns..

    Good luck to you too.
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    • Post n°20

    Trading Journal Empty Re: Trading Journal

    Post by xmart Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:37 pm

    xmart wrote:JKH.N0000

    Trading Journal Jkh10

    After bottomed out at 140 JKH is making a higher low. 10 MA cross above 20 MA while MACD give bullish crossover. JKH is being accumulated though the price remained unchanged.

    3 major Elliot waves were finished. are we looking at new wave forming or a retraccement?

    anyway, my reading says JKH should reach 185 before forming a new trend either down or up.

    any thoughts?

    JKH rejected at 158-160 region (pre-split 182). i exited at 158 with 14% gain for short term. looks like its trying to consolidate around 150 before the conversion. looking at past price actions, after warrant conversion we may see a drop in share price and settle at 140-144 level before its real run. there is a big resistance at 165 level and i believe JKH need more fuel to break 165, 170 and then show its true colors. JKH will be a share for 2017-2018.

    xmart wrote:hi all, its 1st of Aug and lets look at the chart

    Trading Journal Captur12

    the good news is ASI breaks the short term resistance trendline and ranging between 6380-6420. looking at the volume this is a healthy consolidation to the next level. the next resistance level would be near term high 6680-6700. which is 50% fib of the great fall. therefore, this resistance would be hard to break.

    anyway, if ASI to stay in positive territory it should break the rectangle and move up. there are few options at that stage

    option 1: follow by the rectangular consolidation (which is a reliable continuation pattern) ASI should go up. 6500 would be a challenge but there should not be much resistance. (ref date by 20/8/2016)

    option 2: if PM gave a shock with his policy decisions market will react negatively and break the rectangle down, but panic selling would find buyers around 6350-6380 and start the journey to test 6680 level. (ref date by 27/8/2016)

    option 3: PM gave a big shot with unexpected capital gain, unfavorable economic policy, another world turmoil  would bring ASI to 6250. which is unlikely but cannot rued out.

    therefore, shall we expect something exciting around end of august?

    good luck

    we have cleared for opt 01 and cleared 6500 and rejected at 6600 with month end and profit taking. i think it is most welcome pullback and much needed retracement to collect strength to break 6700, which recent high and will give a good fight to the bull. hey, its September and we can expect market to break its recent high and clear the path to 6850, 7000 marks in coming months. with the market everything may go up but only few will outperform the market.

    lets look at the chart.

    Trading Journal Asi_9_10

    we may expect MT support to hold for now. 6680-6700 will provide some good fight for bull (0.5 fib) and it is essential ASI to break above 6700 to stay in bull trend. if rejected 6400, 6250 will provide some support, but highly unlikely with given market sentiment and September results. in a nutshell, i am expecting a super September.

    good luck all!
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    jack18
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    Post by jack18 Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:43 pm

    Thank you Xmart for the detailed analysis
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    xmart
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    Post by xmart Thu Sep 01, 2016 10:47 pm

    Axe wrote:Thanks xmart for your input...

    I assume you are referring to Commodity Channel Index, am I correct? One question there, so there seems to be a lot of indicators available for tech traders, how would you select the most suited one?

    Thanks for pointing out the doji patterns..  

    Good luck to you too.

    axe,

    sorry for delay in reply.

    well, yes there are lot of indicators and one should not messing around with too many of them, which will spoil the soup and give the cook a real headache.

    resistance, supports and price action are all based on crowd sentiment. there are some good indicators to back up your observations. one should play around and mater his eyes to see what really market is showing not what really you want to see. apart from RSI and MACD followings are useful and powerful indicators to help you to judge the market.

    1. ADX
    2. CCI
    3. Stochastic RSI
    4. William Alligator, Awesome oscillator
    5. Accumulation/ Distribution

    cheer!
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    Future123
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    Post by Future123 Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:06 am

    Thanks Xmart
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    Post by blacknights Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:05 am

    Thanks Xmart. As always great yet simple tech analysis.
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    Post by roshana7549 Fri Sep 02, 2016 7:05 am

    Thanks Xmart for your Tech presentation.....
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