Hydro power - simple snapshot based on December quarter

(+) Rep.

HAL9000 wrote:Last quarter we had unusually high rainfalls. So exceptional profits for many hydros so does the run. I think this sector we should enter and exit timely, During dry period price will plummet to bottom
l sold my VPEL and HPFL

Looking at today's run feel I sold my VLL bit too early

chinwi - I expect VLL to catch up with VPEL some day+

so VLL has given 100% return in rather good time.

HPWR needs to show some profit for next quarter (it was in profit if you take out the thermal power so it should be in good profit now) and also a possible dividend. They have cash but possible they might pay off some debt with it. Any idea on the effects of capital reduction?

HPFL too needs to show some more profits to get more people interested. Most want to see that profit on paper before investing. This is where those who identify the earnings early become the winners!

VPEL - expecting little or no profit this quarter. Looking at the price I guess market has identified this, although if they keep up the earnings in Sep and Dec quarter, this is worth more.

The dry quarter was the wettest dry quarter we have had in several years.

VPEL gives monthly production data in its website. For the 1st 3 months, the production has decreased by 5.7% y/y but I'm expecting around 15% + increase in revenues due to tariff increase(?)

Bottom-line, I'm expecting little or nothing this quarter. Let's see. But taking a 12 month view, still worth for the dividends.

First Guy wrote:

HPWR needs to show some profit for next quarter (it was in profit if you take out the thermal power so it should be in good profit now) and also a possible dividend. They have cash but possible they might pay off some debt with it. Any idea on the effects of capital reduction?

Only reason to reduce the stated capital is to move the reduced amount into retained earnings. Once it is in retained earnings it can be paid out as dividends. Since management now owns shares in the company through Trydan the resus monkey might give out a reasonable dividend within the next 6 months.

VLL keeps marching on thanks to buying from Directors. I'm amazed to see such big quantities being sold daily. Will it drop once buying is over?

HPFL and HPWR consolidating at current prices while PAP had some buying from an existing stakeholder.

jiggysaurus wrote:

First Guy wrote:

HPWR needs to show some profit for next quarter (it was in profit if you take out the thermal power so it should be in good profit now) and also a possible dividend. They have cash but possible they might pay off some debt with it. Any idea on the effects of capital reduction?

Only reason to reduce the stated capital is to move the reduced amount into retained earnings. Once it is in retained earnings it can be paid out as dividends. Since management now owns shares in the company through Trydan the resus monkey might give out a reasonable dividend within the next 6 months.

How the power of the resus monkey?

VLL touched 8.50/- Great returns for those who bought at 3.50/- and also subscribed for rights.

HPWR dividend getting closer perhaps. Ned shareholder approval for capital reduction.

HPFL dividend is possible too after the bumper quarter.

First Guy wrote:VLL touched 8.50/- Great returns for those who bought at 3.50/- and also subscribed for rights.

HPWR dividend getting closer perhaps. Ned shareholder approval for capital reduction.

HPFL dividend is possible too after the bumper quarter.

Thanks All

As expected HPFL paid a good dividend. Instead of using the cash for expansion they turned to debt which at this rate is good.

Now they have added 800kW to their capacity taking the total to 4.9MW

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Here is an updated snapshot of trading info.


* Since the beginning of the thread, HPFL has given the best gains including a bumper dividend followed by VLL.
* VPEL is generating extremely good return on equity and payout out almost everything, thus a good dividend yield.
* Expectations are high on HPWR dividend. Once that is paid out, ROE will be much better than what's shown.
* VLL is reinvesting most of the profits in the business with possible good future growth
* HPFL is still not at 100% but showing good signs. Increased trading activity as well.

Thanks 1st G. Super.

First Guy wrote:Here is an updated snapshot of trading info.

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* Since the beginning of the thread, HPFL has given the best gains including a bumper dividend followed by VLL.
* VPEL is generating extremely good return on equity and payout out almost everything, thus a good dividend yield.
* Expectations are high on HPWR dividend. Once that is paid out, ROE will be much better than what's shown.
* VLL is reinvesting most of the profits in the business with possible good future growth
* HPFL is still not at 100% but showing good signs. Increased trading activity as well.

Guys, What do you think about last quarter results, will be good
As per my opinion, the whole sector appreciated for last few months, some are still standing strong

Thanx FG

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This is my prediction for VPEL. I'm not sure about others as my prediction the last quarter was wrong for them.

We need to watch out for HPWR's results. To me I'm wondering whether the repurchase price is really fair, in addition that is in Sept. So almost two quarters more from the last reported results. Will it be fair by then?

Thanks FG
Regarding VPEL, we have seen their earnings has improved in Q1
If they continue their results of Q2, Q3 and Q4 as previous year, i guess, it reaches EPS around 1.10 - 1.25,, Dividend will be other plus point and that would be at least 5% - 6%
Of course, Mostly, results based on adequate rain-fall throughout the year

Note : Not holding VPEL

See the below post. Good if we continue VPEL related discussion on that thread.
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Illusion mentioned about finance cost and I agree. Although volumes fell, revenue might still improve due to tariff. Cost benefits will also add to the bottom line.

VEPL power output has decreased in July and August compared to last year.

Expect EPS less than 0.50/- for this quarter if there is no increase in tariff and if same trend continues in September.

A good trading opportunity is developing with HPFL

pathfinder wrote:A good trading opportunity is developing with HPFL

Well it did reach a low of 7 if I'm right for quite some time. This went past 9 when the last dividend was announced.

It has a new plant in operation which contributed a bit for June quarter.

First Guy wrote:VEPL power output has decreased in July and August compared to last year.

Expect EPS less than 0.50/- for this quarter if there is no increase in tariff and if same trend continues in September.

EPS for the quarter at 0.36/-

Last year it was 0.50/-

HPFL announced 0.30/- dividend while EPS was less than half!

Anyway it has enough cash generated during this period to pay. I don't think HPFL has any new projects so it can use the cash for dividends. But as per HPWR annual report, tariff has reduced and only way these companies can increase future revenue is by new plants.

VPEL also in same boat where it has good cashflow.

HPWR, PAP and VLL have new projects ongoing.

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From PAP Annual Report

chinwi wrote:Thanks.

 . I feel we may see 150/-  US$ in 15-20 months if no strong external support gained.

Just happend to bump this thread and saw this.posted on Sun Feb 15, 2015 6:25 pm.What a prediction CHINWI ? Sadly your target has been outperformed now.

btw,any updates on this sector? many lakes,tanks has been filled and opened the spills while VPEL ,VLL trading 52 weeks low..