Truth behind the USD 6.361 loans of the present government

FG a very good feed back.

When you say you own shares on Margin Accounts, literally you are on liabilities. Then again not all those who on Margin fail. Some thrive some burn. Once again its not about Luck but Preparation.

Let me summarize two good books.

1. Why Nations Fail ?

Summary:  you cant engineer development but its a historical evolutionary process.

2. Turn -Around by Peter Blair Henry

Summary: Discipline can engineer development.

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Meijis of Japan, Park Chun Hee of South Korea, Lee of Singa made the path to development by disciplining.

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It is the same discipline make the difference in Margin Accounts.

Now lets look at some white elephant projects of the world.



The Empire State Building remained largely empty after it's completion and didn't become profitable until the 1950s, more than 20 years after completion. Apparently as of 2009 it still had a 22% vacancy rate. If not the biggest it was the tallest white elephant.





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Ryugyong hotel in Pyongyang, North Korea.
It is one of the tallest buildings in the world, was to have 7 revolving restaurants, casinos, and nightclubs despite being built in a very poor country. Cost overruns and mismanagement have led it to be completely vacant even though construction began in 1987. Its $750 million cost is estimated to be ~2% of the countries GDP - in one building! It is currently the 40th tallest building in the world





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Ciudad Real Airport in Spain cost $1.8 billion and was closed after 3 years for lack of business, just one of many gigantic failed design projects in this troubled country. Other projects close because too expensive to maintain.


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The Olympic Stadium^[7] (French: Stade olympique) is a multi-purpose stadium in Canada, located at Olympic Park in the Hochelaga-Maisonneuve district of Montreal, Quebec. Built in the mid-1970s as the main venue for the 1976 Summer Olympics, it is nicknamed "The Big O", a reference to both its name and to the doughnut-shape of the permanent component of the stadium's roof. It is also called "The Big Owe" to reference the astronomical cost of the stadium and the 1976 Olympics as a whole.^[8]
The stadium is the largest by seating capacity in Canada. After the Olympics, artificial turf was installed and it became the home of Montreal's professional baseball and football teams. The Montreal Alouettes of the CFL moved their regular season games to a smaller venue in 1998, but use Olympic Stadium for playoff and Grey Cup games. Following the 2004 baseball season, the Expos relocated to Washington, D.C. to become the Washington Nationals. The stadium currently serves as a multipurpose facility for special events (e.g. concerts, trade shows) with a permanent seating capacity of 56,040.^[1][2] The capacity is expandable with temporary seating. The Montreal Impact of Major League Soccer (MLS) use the venue on occasion, when larger capacity is needed or when the weather restricts outdoor play at nearby Saputo Stadium in the spring months.
The stadium has not had a main tenant since the Expos left in 2004. With a history of numerous structural and financial problems, it is largely seen as a white elephant.

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More than 75 stone elephant statues were built using public money by Mayawati, an Indian state leader, in her state Uttar Pradesh.






It is said public money worth Rs 1,400 crore or 7.77 billion US Dollars (1 USD = approx 55 INR), which was 34 per cent of the total budget for construction of memorials and parks, was siphoned off in construction of memorials during her regime.

The parks with numerous other statutes of her and her party founder were built to satisfy self serving interests using tax payers money.








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Niemeyer Centre in Avilés, a gorgeous $54 million museum, already closed



https://www.quora.com/What-are-some-of-the-biggest-white-elephant-projects-in-history

YK, I think these posts should be in a separate thread.

I might have a few views to add on 'white elephants'

mmm.... FG,

Servicing of debt is the other main issue apart from export orientation for the problems we are with forex.

So my belief is White Elephants is part and parcel of the topic of the Thread...

Now we're talking

yellow knife wrote:It seems this dialogue between former President and incumbent government is continuing. This is a very good learning exercise.

Lets continue this educational process without getting down to petty politics.

This is What former President says again

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March 31, 2016 at 12:01 am | lanka C news

මා විදේශ ණය සම්බන්ධයෙන් මීට පෙර නිකුත් කළ ප්‍රකාශයකට ප්‍රතිචාර දක්වමින් මුදල් ඇමතිවරයා අවස්ථා කීපයකදීම මාධ්‍යට අදහස් දක්වමින් මත්තල ගුවන්තොටුපළ හා හම්බන්තොට වරායේ වියදම ඩොලර් මිලියන 190 ක් හා ඩොලර් මිලියන 426 ක් හැටියට මා සඳහන් කර තිබුණත් ආණ්ඩුවේ වාර්තා වලට අනුව ඒවායේ සැබෑ වියදම් ඩොලර් මිලියන 210ක් හා 1,300 ක් හැටියට සඳහන් වන බවත් මෙය සැක කටයුතු වෙනසක් බවත් කියා සිටියේය. මත්තල ගුවන්තොටුපළේ මුළු වියදම ඩොලර් මිලියන 210කි. ඒ සඳහා චීන එක්සිම් බැංකුවෙන් ඩොලර් මිලියන 190ක ණයක් ලැබුණු අතර ඉතිරි මුදල ලංකාවේ ආණ්ඩුව විසින් දැරිය යුතු කොටසයි. අපි පසුගිය වතාවේදී කතා කළේ විදෙස් ණය ගැන පමණකි. හම්බන්තොට වරායේ පළමු අදියරේ මුළු වියදම ඩොලර් මිලියන 501 ක් වූ අතර ඉන් 15% ක් වරාය අධිකාරිය ගෙවන ලදී. එවිට විදෙස් ණය ප්‍රමාණය ඩොලර් මිලියන 426ක් පමණ වේ. හම්බන්තොට වරායේ වියදම ඩොලර් මිලියන 1,300ක් යැයි මුදල් ඇමතිවරයා කියන්නේ ඩොලර් මිලියන 808ක වියදමින් 2012 දී ආරම්භ කර තවමත් අවසන් කර නැති දෙවන අදියර ද එකතු කිරීමෙනි.
මා කළින් කියා සිටි ආකාරයටම 2015 මාර්තු සිට වත්මන් ආණ්ඩුව ඇමරිකානු ඩොලර් මිලියන 6,361 ක් ණයට ගෙන තිබෙන බව ඇමතිවරුන් දෙදෙනෙක්ම මාධ්‍ය ඉදිරියේ පිළිගත් අතර මේ ණය ගැනීමට සිදු වූයේ මාගේ ආණ්ඩුව විසින් අධික පොළියට ගත් ණය ගෙවා දැමීමට බව කියා සිටියේය. මගේ ආණ්ඩුව විසින් ගත් දිගු කාලීන ව්‍යාපෘති ණය සෑමවිටම පාහේ ලබා ගත්තේ 2% කට හෝ ඊට අඩු පොළියකටය. එම නිසා ඒවා ගෙවීමට ණය ගැනීමට අවශ්‍ය නැත. මීට දින කිහිපයකට පෙර ආණ්ඩුව තවත් සංවර්ධන බැඳුම්කර නිකුතුවකින් ඩොලර් මිලියන 375 ක් ලබා ගත්තේය. ඊයේ ඉන්දියාවෙන් අනුමත වූ ඩොලර් මිලියන 700 ක මාස තුනෙන් කල් පිරෙන මූල්‍ය ඒකක හුවමාරු ණයත් සමඟ 2015 මාර්තු සිට අද දක්වා මේ ආණ්ඩුව ඩොලර් මිලියන 7,436 ක විදේශ ණය ලබාගෙන තිබේ. ඉන් ඩොලර් මිලියන 3,298 ක් මේ අවුරුද්ද (එනම් 2016) තුළම ගෙවීමට සිදු වේ. ආණ්ඩුව මේ ආකාරයට ණය ගන්නේ කළින් ආණ්ඩුවල ණය ගෙවීමට නොව තමන් විසින්ම කිසිදු වගවිභාගයකින් හා කළමණාකරනයකින් තොරව ගත් කෙටි කාලීන ණය ගෙවා දැමීමටය.
මහින්ද රාජපක්‍ෂ
හිටපු ජනාධිපති

Agree very much

First Guy wrote:YK,

I don't quite agree linking feasibility studies with academics. Yes there are several differences in people who got A and people who got C but those differences are not because of the grades but the other way.

The Branson example and the financier example were when they invested their own money, maybe not accountable for anyone else. But in an organization or country you're not playing with you own money. You have to be accountable. If things go wrong, people will question, just like now and you have to cover your side. If it goes right though, no one will question or even appreciate.

Does not also mean academics are risk takers. There are plenty. Most risk takers aren't the ones who got high grades perhaps.

Above two examples are successes. There can also be failures that were done without proper analyzing.

When we study White Elephants we come across following irrespective of the country or nature of ruling.

So White elephants appear in Dictator's North Korea to Democratic US or India.

As defined earlier White Elephants are massive expenditures which generate little or no income and the income it generate is not sufficient enough to service debt but its marvelous to look at.

1. Stadiums
2. Airports
3. High rising buildings are the common

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Like an entrepreneur who find it difficult to sell after producing like Akio Moirta or Sony's recorders, have to sell and generate income.

These entrepreneurs take all necessary actions to sell and if one method fails they take another until profit is made.

Those who fail find " we have done all what we could but it doesn't work".

Some products by its inherent nature may have restricted sales capacity like Olympic Stadiums.

One country that should have buried with the burden of White Elephants found adding each new White Elephant make them change color and becoming Black or workable.

That is Dubai... Each massive building should have ended up as a loss maker ending the country's prosperity. Yet it became tourist attraction...and tourism paid dividends.

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On November 25, 2009, Dubai World, the wholly owned subsidiary of the Emirate of Dubai announced that it would request a 6-month standstill on all debt servicing starting December 2009. The announcement effectively gave notice that the company’s debt would be rescheduled. The announcement came on the eve of Eid Al-Adha holiday during which Dubai banks were closed from November 26 to 29. For these four worrisome days, at least to Dubai’s panicked lenders and investors, the company maintained complete silence.

http://daringopinion.com/Dubai-and-its-White-Elephants-3-2010.php

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With the spread of Financial Crisis of 2008 across the world Dubai was in bad shape and many critics saw all projects of Dubai as White Elephants.

So we are moving to Dubai to understand Property based White Elephants that have turned to black.



Nakheel (Arabic: نخيل‎ palms or palm trees) is a real estate developer in Dubai and creator of several land reclamation projects, including the Palm Islands, the Dubai Waterfront, The World and The Universe Islands. Its residential projects include The Gardens, International City, Jumeirah Islands and Jumeirah Lake Towers. Its shopping projects include The Dragon Mart (at International City) and Ibn Battuta Mall. Its main competitor in residential development in Dubai is Emaar Properties.
Nakheel's flagship properties are the three man-made palm tree shaped islands on the coast of Dubai. Nakheel operates under the umbrella of Dubai World, which manages various businesses on behalf of the Dubai government. The executive chairman of Al Nakheel is Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum.

Now the same State Owned near bankruptcy Nakheel report profit...

Nakheel declares net profit of AED4.38 billion for 2015 – up almost 20 per cent on previous year


http://www.nakheel.com/en/media/news/nakheel-declares-net-profit-of-aed438-billion-for-2015-up-almost-20-per-cent-on-previous-year

Now you can see that a State gambled on projects and invested on massive projects was unable to service debt in 2009 and requesting a stand still of servicing debt recover and make profit.

Suppose there was a government change in 2009 ( of course that should have happened if Dubai was Democratic ), the new government would have blamed the previous rulers and try their best to prove they inherited White Elephants.

Instead Dubai State was doing its best to turn-around than mere finding fault with decisions taken earlier...

Thus there was no lamenting economists claiming Feasibility Reports ....

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This is what they publish in their web

Palm Jumeirah, Nakheel’s flagship project, is the world’s largest man-made island and is comprised of a two kilometre long trunk, a crown made up of 17 fronds and a surrounding crescent.
Following a number of years of feasibility studies, the Palm Jumeirah was launched in 2001, with reclamation starting in the same year. From the end of 2006, the island's first residences – comprising 4,000 luxury villas and apartments were handed over during a phased period. Since then, the tourism, leisure and retail elements of the island have been developed, creating a spectacular, world-renowned residential and tourism destination.
Location:
Jumeirah, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
 
 
Sales Centre:
Nakheel Sales Centre, Al Sufouh Road, Dubai, UAE

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Anyway Nakheel of Dubai and the reliability of Feasibility is a worthy study during the preparation stage, how critics did forensic studies during the Debt issue and how the same reacting when everything is succeeding...

When in bad shape

How Dubai's $14bn dream to build The World is ... - Daily Mail

www.dailymail.co.uk/.../How-Dubais-14-billion-dream-build-...
Daily Mail
Apr 11, 2010 - Of Dubai's absurd dreams, none has failed more spectacularly than The ... And as Adam Luck reports, the $14bn dream has left a trail of death, debt and deception .... The islands were bought off-plan from Nakheel for between $15 million and .... saying, 'At the moment the economics do not make it feasible

Nakheel issued Sukuk as a SPV ( Special Purpose Vehicle) for their projects.

Creative financiers often create new instruments.  For anyone wants further study on this refer from p.208 onward in Heaven's Banker of Harris Irfan.

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Now I am again quoting from Harsha's article

" Now let us take the International Sovereign Bond, or ISBs . Yes , the new Government has issued 2,150 million in ISBs in 2015.




If one take a cursory glance at the history of ISBs, it becomes clear that it was during Rajapaksha time the ISB program was started. In fact there is nothing wrong with ISBs if used for productive purposes."

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Now Rajapaksha era was the time ISBs were utilized for the first time in Sri Lanka. So let them get that credit.

Even Harsha argues such ISBs should be used for Productive Purposes, one cannot fail to question Harsha in return to name the productive purpose his new government used after obtaining 2,150 million. Further Harsha has not included (purposely ?) the sign of $ infront of 2,150 million leaving us wondering wether that is LKR or USD. He has very clearly used the $ mark in front of 1,500 million taken by earlier regime in 2014 by issuing ISBs. Such omissions should have been checked by him or ideally by his team mates (even Mao had researchers and Theorists at his beck and call )  before sending the article for publishing.

Now Harsha and the team is in power though they seems to forget that factor quite often and still act like they are in opposition.

This is one example..

Quoting Harsha

the year prior to that in 2013, his Government got NSB to issue $ 750 million in five year international bonds for the highest ever interest rate of 8.875% plus fees when the global five year benchmark was only 1.3%.

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So what Harsha can do is first take a bond on par or below global five year benchmark and show the country this is how we obtain at lower rates...

When he was in opposition he can easily say how to issue bonds at lower yields now since he is in power he can practically show how to do it than mere writing on papers...

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This article consist of many deliberate omissions. Though bonds issued by NSB and Sri Lankan Air Lines shown and argued as hidden debt, BOCs bond is not mentioned.

So in 2012 even a year before that BOC issued bonds at 6.875%. By the size of the balance sheet NSB has to offer higher than BOC.



Bank of Ceylon raises $500 mln thro' bonds
The Bank of Ceylon (BoC) has seen huge success with its US$500 million, 5-year tenure bond issue, drawing subscriptions totalling $3.86 billion, more than seven times the amount sought, official sources said on Friday.
The issue, for which subscriptions closed on Thursday, was priced at a yield of 6.875% with the money to be used for 'general corporate purposes'. Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citi and HSBC were the Joint Lead Managers and 'book runners' for the issue. BoC's top management has been on a roadshow in the past two weeks to promote the issue.

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/120429/BusinessTimes/bt04.html

Harsha state where the ISBs should go...

But, as far as we know by and large the proceeds were not used for the intended purposes but instead for general budgetary support.

So Harsha shows from one angle that Bonds should have been issued by former regime either for par or below global average and purpose should not to be for budgetary support.

Now lets look how Harsha and the team worked when they are in power.


REUTERS: Sri Lanka paid less than it had expected to borrow US $ 1.5 billion via a 10-year sovereign bond on Tuesday, with strong orders helping bring down the yield on the issue to 6.85 percent from initial guidance of around 7 percent.

The Finance Ministry will use the funds to help plug a gap in the budget, government sources said.

- See more at: http://www.dailymirror.lk/93027/sri-lanka-sells-us-1-5bn-10-year-sovereign-bond-at-6-85-yield#sthash.e9TSZ3yJ.dpuf


Now you can see the difference between saying and doing..

BOC is not a country yet they got Bond subscribed in 2012 at 6.875%  at a yield equal to  ISBs offered by Harsha's clan and the purpose is equal to former regimes.

Now we can summarize

1. We are not an export driven nation and MR era nothing has happened to improve on that as well as now.

2. MR era took loans for infrastructure projects like Harbours, Expressways, Safari Parks, Air Ports, and these projects thriving or bust is depending on tourism booming or busting.

Like Dubai, these projects can be turn around .

When we evaluate White Elephants of the world we have to be careful for not to construct Sports Stadiums targeting massive events. Same for Arts like Film halls.

At the same time we have to understand that its only government has the financial muscle to undertake big projects.  eg : In a land of 20 million plus population there are only four halls that can accommodate 800+ people, namely BMICH, Water's Edge, Rose Garden Boaralesgamuwa and Blue Waters Wadduwa.

3. Bonds and other debt instruments should be used creatively and carefully . MR era earn credit for introducing ISBs and SOE based bonds.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Special Thanks should go for Dr Harsha for taking time to write this article and this kind of professional arguments  and also former president Mahinda
Rajapaksha for raising the issue and  and these arguments will take the country forward.

************ The End ****************

Im too late in this conversation and has no idea to add fuel to the fire..

Good that MR has expressed his views and condemned the current Govt for his mishaps. Its a two way win-win situation for both him and the Govt. Each one is pointing fingers at each other.
Anyways, if you guys know on what grounds the China loans and investments came from, its suicidal. IF MR says the loans are 2% or lower, then it sums up that we sold Sri Lanka in 3 or 4 tranches of loan processes in his time.

Following might help;
https://www.facebook.com/voiceceylon/videos/970096479733368/