Should CSE be like this? Whose FAULT is it?

Yin-Yang wrote:

slstock wrote:+
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2)

Yin-Yang wrote:Why do you guys want the index to go up only?

Ans :  Because ,

a) It is the need at this time to boost Investor/Trader confidence

b)  ASI is "ALL SHARES". This is about almost everybody winning at CSE .  Not only the "me"/"us" for  the shares we hold.

c) CSE which is reflected by ASI does not deserve to be trading at PE of 10, PBV 1.2 and Dividend yield of over 3% ( in 2010 it was trading at PE of 26, PBV of 3  etc)

d) we need to get rid of our Fear psychosis and finding negatives always , which is also contributing to   make CSE go down


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3)  Stated in the article

"Let market positivity build based on FACTS. Not Stupid FEARS and negativity."


I see you"ll still  want to talk about Foreign selling, rupee depreciation, political uncertainty etc but  
we are still overlooking the facts presented and the Positives of CSE.

Can you please read the article as all of these presumptions have been addressed with Facts.

While you are doing it , can someone  please answer why

most markets in ASIA have been up (in average) for last 2 years while some of them  having  the same negatives mentioned for Sri Lanka.  

So why is only CSE down 20%  while stats are positive day by day ?
Why is our neighbor India up 40%? )

My friend,
trying to make the Index go up is like trying to buy a Merc Limo to show that you're rich to yourself.

Let the things show their real status and let people live by their means.

If you are not rich enough to afford, the Merc might not make you rich but make you bankrupt.

Only 'manipulators' would try to jack up or pull down the indexes artificially.
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So you want to Jack it up?

slstock wrote:ET, Thanks for taking time to find some useful  material to answer
questions and add positively to the discussion!

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INTEREST RATES VS CSE

Let study the interest rate effect on CSE.

Yes, Interest rates have some effect as mentioned in logical sense.  
But I will demo below it is only a minute part of the equation to make
the irrational CSE boom.


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Some facts on CB rates  to note :

* In 2009 when CSE was in major bull run , 1 year Treasury rates were high as 13%

* by 2010 when CSE was still running in full steam , rates dropped to around 9%

Surprisingly , our current rates  ( in July 2018) are around same 9% as in 2010 !  Add to that , much higher cost of living and so much
higher $/imports costs!  But ASI is trying to be pushed  back to 2010 times !! 


* In 2011 , when rates were low as 7% , CSE started its crash!
 ( Even the interest rate being low , the crash was evident,  mainly due to over
  valuation of CSE at PE  of 26 ,  PBV of 3+ etc  ) .


As we can  now see interest rates are only part of what happens at CSE.

I can demo further interest rate effect vs Stock market booms/downs  
using USA , but even without it now we can see interest rates are only
one part of the formula to make CSE boom .

I only wish it was direct we can solely pin  our Central Bank/Rates
for the mess at CSE.

It evidently goes much beyond! CSE behaves very differently to norms
anyway. This is what I was/am trying to address in this  article.



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Also we need to note that Rs to $ has inflated a lot since 2010.
Cost of living has ballooned in SL.

In a country like Sri Lanka  where many people depend on bank/FD interest income ,
CB dropping rates a lot will hurt a lot of  them.

Right now am sure many  people have lot of issues with rising cost of living and added taxes .

Only relief is the interest income.  
So Central  Bank has to be careful on that aspect too when they manage rates.  


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Considering all this , is one more reason why CSE should not be dropping like this and it should serve as additional source of income atleast to let what is of value to reach it value !






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slstock wrote:
Ying Yang,

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show research facts to counter them.  

Market is dead , nobody is posting at forums , everyone is negative , and now you try to demotivate a few  who take effort to show facts with research .


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Ethical Trader wrote:Trying to analyze the erratic CSE with facts & logic can't be equated to crowing my dear. If one finds opposing views he can put forward them as an educated person. SLS is one concerned individual trying to enlighten the investors despite his poor health conditions. He is helpless when the very people benefited by his yeoman service are sarcastic of him.

I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market.

Ethical Trader wrote:
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I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market.

Yin-Yang wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:
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I have not seen same treatment over alleged manipulators of the market.

Show me the list
and the list of threads

Ethical Trader wrote:
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Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

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Yin-Yang wrote:

"Your beloved CSE index in last 5 years; ..."

Yin-Yang wrote:
This is called Cause and effect my friend.

Yin-Yang wrote:
Sometimes, roosters might think the sun rises because they are crowing in the morning.

The market is like sun.
We, you and me, are just roosters.

That;s the other thing in common between, you and me.
Roosters!

serene wrote:Really appreciate SLS for the effort and the dedication put upon on Comprehensive write up which covers all the facets one can draw to explain the doom state of CSE.
If i were to come up with any explanations for the same I wouldn't be able to come up with any plausible explanation other than boils down this Languishing and utter chaotic CSE behavior to inter connection between the Share Markets and the capabilities and Confidants  Investors could put upon on Politicians( ruling party as well as the Opposition) of their respective countries. Otherwise why only us.

serene wrote:
But still we are collecting fundamentally sound shares which are at a really appealing prices.And also keep the eye on possible trading opportunities once the market is turned.
But the million dollar question is When???

malanp wrote:Sls
thank you for valuable thoughts. what I feel is the biggest problem Sri Lanka have is we do not have good local fund managers . May be they all have paper qualifications but go with the tide of traders. They have traders mentality .

A good fund manager  can see the market opportunities and reap the benefits later . 20% annual return is more than enough to buy a share.  It is not happening as we can see so many beaten down shares remain in the market so many years.. it is not possible in a country with good fund managers are active as a beaten down share is immidiatly picked up by fund managers ,then share price is recovered within a short period of time.

So we should not blame the government, economy or eroding rupee value. These are not the reasons. The main reason is CSE is only for traders , Investors have yet to enter the place..

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  

slstock wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  

Am happy your "Dividend shares" are treating you well.
I too am not bothered about my portfolio  as I am alright with it.  

But we also need to think about  the plight of many others at CSE
who might be suffering  ( due market not even treating their value shares right)

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:We are not institutional or High worth investors to be able to change the direction of the market.
But as small-time investors, we can play our part in our own ways by diverting excess cash into CSE.
This is what I had been doing lately.
Whether it helped to change the overall outlook of the market I am not sure but my portfolio looks much healthier now than a few months ago.  

slstock wrote:

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:As a long-term investor, I am not concerned about this "Yin - Yang" in the market, as long as my shares are giving me reasonable returns regularly.
Up to now, my selections have not failed me.  

Am happy your "Dividend shares" are treating you well.
I too am not bothered about my portfolio  as I am alright with it.  

But we also need to think about  the plight of many others at CSE
who might be suffering  ( due market not even treating their value shares right)

කිත්සිරි ද සිල්වා wrote:We are not institutional or High worth investors to be able to change the direction of the market.

spw19721 wrote:Thank You SLS sir for your valuable contribution.This Time I didnt go panic (Actually no need to) as I was in 2015 . Im happy to say I got succeed in averaging down LFIN (118) , REXP (170) , SAMP (290) .

In addition,collected CIND(30) ,HDFC (27), CRL (30) in small quantities.only GRAN(78) & PLC (16.5) shows some relative loss.  

But If recall in 2015-2016, I suffered around 30%,-50% losses holding SFL (22) ,BOGA (28),CHOT(30),TYRE(80) etc..  .

This forum made my perspective from a pathetic loser for a patient investor.You have helped me a lot to come out from the woods. Now I know how to surive in storms.

besides I should thank the writers who started following threads which showed me something which my stockbroker would hate to admit,,

1) http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t10486-dividends-dividends-dividends-what-a-damage

2) http://forum.lankaninvestor.com/t8608-dividend-cash-cows-tales#74919

If CSE dip more , for me no need to panic coz I have 9-10% return  giving cash cows which will give more in coming years. I can utilize those dividends for risky trades .If I lose,no heart attacks , still can sleep well.

Hats off for all experienced writers who taught me to be patient like the ants among locusts.

Yin-Yang wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:
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Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

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Brother,
You brought it up that there are a bunch of villains I need to tackle.
Then I asked you to show them.
Then you're telling me there are no villains.

Cannot comprehend.

Are you scared of them?

Either you shouldn't have referred to them in the fist place or you have to show me all of them; one by one.
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once and for all.

Yin-Yang wrote:

Yin-Yang wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:
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Well, its better not open cans of werms. Let us concentrate on share discussions.

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Brother,
You brought it up that there are a bunch of villains I need to tackle.
Then I asked you to show them.
Then you're telling me there are no villains.

Cannot comprehend.

Are you scared of them?

Either you shouldn't have referred to them in the fist place or you have to show me all of them; one by one.
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once and for all.

C'on Buddy! Show me the list!!

Otherwise, we have to conclude that your fear of this Manipulators is just baseless cries.

Just like your claims on market analysis.

As well as your claims on expertise on all those unrelated fields; useful to none.

Ethical Trader wrote:Be cool bro. Your slip is showing.