Re: CFVF - First Capital

Thu Oct 16, 2014 12:04 pm

Ethical Trader wrote:

Leon wrote:

Ethical Trader wrote:Very good analysis PF. I like the way you analyse.

My average cost of cdvf is around Rs:20/= . I am a sort of dividend invester & I rarely trade. ? PF, Is it good to sell when the target comes or hold even after reaching the target.

Wow. You must be a very happy man.
@ET, What reason made you to collect CFVF around 20.00 level??

This was during last bull-run & thereafter the price came tumbling down & I even thought of selling at a loss but just didnt do that as I had holding power. Could have bought more at lower price levels but was reluctant (1) as there was a fraud in the company and (2) was not aware of its potential.

Great ET.

You seems to have lot of patience. Basketball

Happy for you. cheers

Thu Oct 16, 2014 1:14 pm

I collected the share at 16 and sold it at 24 and again collected at 32 and 36 did not sell still

Thu Oct 16, 2014 2:22 pm

suja wrote:I collected the share at 16 and sold it at 24 and again collected at 32 and 36 did not sell still

Good to hear suja.
By the way CFVF Q reports will be published next week( Most probably) according to the company sources.( I spoke to them today)

Disc: I hold CFVF and waiting for the reports.

Thu Oct 16, 2014 6:58 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Ethical Trader wrote:Very good analysis PF. I like the way you analyse.

My average cost of cdvf is around Rs:20/= . I am a sort of dividend invester & I rarely trade. ? PF, Is it good to sell when the target comes or hold even after reaching the target.

Thanks ET

It is better to hold a share even after reaching your target if the company is doing well. Revise your target in a prudent manner.

In the case of CFVF and ESL this low interest envirenment is good for their earnings.It will produce good EPS and dividends till the rates rise.
IMO it is better to hold for couple of quarters and see the direction Very Happy

Thu Oct 16, 2014 8:36 pm Message reputation : 100% (2 votes)

Is it good to sell when the target comes or hold even after reaching the target.

We set our targets considering the situation prevailed at that time.
If you know the real reason you bought the share, have good understanding of its business then you can adjust your targets according to present conditions.

Although this is important with any share, this is highly relevant to shares like CFVF which step into new phases in quick manner responding to external economic/legal/policy adjustments.

This type of approach is also valuable with the shares directly connected to the external effects that we can watch easily -such as Rubber , Tea ,hydro and oil power companies - so that we can take decisions before others. ( to sell or buy more)

If you bought a share without such special reason and when it reached your target without any specific reason then I think it is better to drop it.

For eg., take CFVF, I had some qty bought @ around 16-18 kept for months and when it reached 20s bought more, bought again @ 32 and again @ 44 , and @ 52, few @ 56 ... didn't sell a single share during the process.
(except about 15,000 sold @ 23/- due to unexpected sudden pressure from the broker* few days before it reached 30s. Fortunately I bought same qty same day using my margin in SMB account. )

* similar to what they did last week

Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:08 pm

So everyone is in collecting mood?

I see brokers play a lot wit this.. they allow their big shots to collect so they start dumping by selling everyday at 56-57 then collect from 54-55 Sad

strange..

Thu Oct 16, 2014 9:10 pm

CFVF Game is over. I dumped all my holding today.

Thu Oct 16, 2014 11:24 pm

WasteofTime wrote:CFVF Game is over. I dumped all my holding today.

Is it the game over coz you dumped your holding??

Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:49 am

chinwi wrote:

Is it good to sell when the target comes or hold even after reaching the target.

We set our targets considering the situation prevailed at that time.
If you know the real reason you bought the share, have good understanding of its business then you can adjust your targets according to present conditions.

Although this is important with any share, this is highly relevant to shares like CFVF which step into new phases in quick manner responding to external economic/legal/policy adjustments.

This type of approach is also valuable with the shares directly connected to the external effects that we can watch easily -such as Rubber , Tea ,hydro and oil power companies - so that we can take decisions before others. ( to sell or buy more)

If you bought a share without such special reason and when it reached your target without any specific reason then I think it is better to drop it.

For eg., take CFVF, I had some qty bought @ around 16-18 kept for months and when it reached 20s bought more, bought again @ 32 and again @ 44 , and @ 52, few @ 56 ... didn't sell a single share during the process.
(except about 15,000 sold @ 23/- due to unexpected sudden pressure from the broker* few days before it reached 30s. Fortunately I bought same qty same day using my margin in SMB account. )

* similar to what they did last week

Spot on mate.
Aproach we all should follow.
Thanks

Fri Oct 17, 2014 8:58 am

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Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:07 am

Top Trader wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Wow......

Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:42 am

no one notices yet???

Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:15 am Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Top Trader wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Outstanding performence,

Q EPS is 6.05 last year 0.28

Eps for six months 8.12 last year 0.89

NAPS 25.97 last year 17.23

Enough for a ride Very Happy

Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:25 am

pathfinder wrote:

Top Trader wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Outstanding performence,

Q EPS is 6.05 last year 0.28

Eps for six months 8.12 last year 0.89

NAPS 25.97 last year 17.23

Enough for a ride

It looks that the price already has adjusted to the Q reports. Next hope is the dividend I guess.

Fri Oct 17, 2014 11:27 am

The EPS is at Rs.8 for half a year. Just be cautious that the company is not like any other, They might not give the same level of EPS in the future. so say that the the year ends with Rs.12 eps and they decide to give Rs.5 as Dividend. I think the share should trade at atleast Rs.72- 84 (5-6 PE) on a conservative side.

Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:04 pm

CFVF what will happen? Today i bought at 55.00

Fri Oct 17, 2014 9:57 pm

Leon wrote:

pathfinder wrote:

Top Trader wrote:[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Outstanding performence,

Q EPS is 6.05 last year 0.28

Eps for six months 8.12 last year 0.89

NAPS 25.97 last year 17.23

Enough for a ride

It looks that the price already has adjusted to the Q reports. Next hope is the dividend I guess.

I'm not believing, price has adjusted with Q reports. Still I'm believing some dirty game playing by some one/party. Bit disappoint about that. But do not loose the patient, wait for the next move or news.

Good luck

Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:00 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

slstock wrote:Let be happy but let us not expect these results again. I would be happy if they can report Rs 12-13 eps for the whole year.
Anything more will be bonus but we should not expect Rs 6 eps a quarter again.

Yes they may or may not report Rs.6 EPS for next two quarters,that's not the nature of their business.But they will produce a EPS of 12+ Very Happy

Let's say it is 12, if so it is trading below 5PE one of the rarest in now a days Smile

Any thing above 12 is a bonus as you mentioned.

chinwi

Lot of people were waiting to sell over 65-70 after the releasing of the report and selling pressure caused the price down.
Some people bought early morning today @ 57-58 on credit expecting quick gain.
They sold with losses.

Agree with you,and there may be people who had target time frame of selling after the results.
On friday 1.5 MN traded around 54-55,Retailers alone can't buy such a volume.
people who bought from sellers may not willing to sell below 54 Wink

First Guy wrote:One must understand that although the profits are great, it will not be recurring. If one buys now expecting a dividend, I doubt it will be worth anyway. Those who spotted and got in early are the winners.

Sorry I can't agree with you,Most of the companies in CSE have that issue,no one can earn handsomely for ever.

For example REXP it will not produce such a great results when rubber prices starts to go up,but it is trading around 150 with NAVPS of 31.92 and a quarter EPS of 6.43
Dividend 5.15 for 2013 when annual EPS were 17+

In a situation of low interest CFVF can produce good results,when the time comes their earnings will go down,no doubt.
In the current situation CFVF is trading below 5PE.

Nuinth wrote:

I'm not believing, price has adjusted with Q reports. Still I'm believing some dirty game playing by some one/party. Bit disappoint about that. But do not loose the patient, wait for the next move or news.

Good luck

Brokers can't play forever Very Happy

Good luck

Sat Oct 18, 2014 2:05 pm

I think this should apply to here as well.It was in this thread - [You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

stocks hunter wrote:What has happened here is brokers collected massively this share on credit basis as well.There target is the Q reports and once the reports came out they don't want to study it and sold everything like MAD fellows.All of these brokers got the benefit of our discussions here massively.

In every company if you think the short term there's a risk. Can you expect REXP to give QOQ profit growth in every Q and continue like this? Can u expect KGAL to remain like this for ever? Can you expect LIOC to go on and reporting good profits like this in every Q.In last Q every body expected profit growth from LGL. What has heppened? Reported profit was down by 80%. Then X share (I had this) came down to Rs 27 levels from Rs34 levels in two days time and now trading above Rs34 levels and even they have not yet publish their Sep Q reports even. Same happened to LIOC as well. Hit Rs45 and came down to Rs 37 levels now trading Rs 48 levels. Take TAFL. Every body expected good Q reports in June. But came out with a small loss. Share came down to Rs49 levels after hitting Rs 60 levels and now trading Rs 57 levels. Sep Q reports yet to publish here as well.

This short term mentality is killing sri lankan investors. Our brokers have no ideas what to do execept day trading/ short term trading. Long term players nothing to worry.

Sat Oct 18, 2014 3:35 pm

Remember the family has appx. 78% of the shares (Dunamis/Janashakthi) based on the report. So a good dividend is due. Say you collect at Rs.55 and the announce Rs6. ? What price should the share be?

Sat Oct 18, 2014 5:47 pm

suja wrote:Remember the family has appx. 78% of the shares (Dunamis/Janashakthi) based on the report. So a good dividend is due. Say you collect at Rs.55 and the announce Rs6. ? What price should the share be?

Again the question is, has this expectation been reflected in the price already? Let's say everyone is expecting 6/- then it probably is. If it is more than expectation, it should go further up, but then again will come down if the trading gains are not repeatable.

I am not comfortable paying this price to a company with the current book value when there's not much possibility to repeat the same performance.

Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:24 pm Message reputation : 100% (1 vote)

Not sure if this makes sense or useful...

CFVF History

Sat Oct 18, 2014 10:59 pm

First Guy wrote:Not sure if this makes sense or useful...

CFVF History

+rep FG. So this quarter they have recorded their best ever income. hmm. If they can repeat at least half of it for the next two Qs still it is an excellent year for them.

Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:04 am

Guys, buying a stock is up to us. Its our money. But I firmly believe that the price has not adjusted to the current situation.

How can we say it has when we can see that they will comfortably achieve Rs.12 EPS. @ 6 PE , which is a conservative estimate it should trade at Rs.72.

I think It was Chinwi who identified this stock at Rs.16 , I took a chance then looking at the future. But no more a chance it is a fact and will buy around this levels as I smell a big dividend on this stock.

We need toc heck the owners of the company and how they have behaved in the past and take a call.

New comers may be a wise decision not to invest. But if you are in to value side or devident side pls look at this.

I would strongly recommend this to people who are already in this stock.

People who have missed out and sold early, please check the numbers current and past data and give advise

Tue Oct 21, 2014 10:18 am

This is a headache now. Over 1B profited company and day by day price coming down.